A year since October 7, a month to November 5
A year after the slaughter of October 7, a month before the US elections, the world is near the point of no return. Humanity was already having to deal with the economic fallout of the pandemic when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. The increasing tension between the United States and China stoked further economic and political uncertainty, and the climate crisis was already overturning all that we knew about climate and weather. What followed October 7 in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, and what the ballot box brings on November 5, will have a decisive effect on the lives of all. And the signs of what may follow are not good.
As the latest Middle East conflict develops, it is clear how much the world changed after Al Qaeda’s attack on the United States on September 11, 2001. Because people grow accustomed to turmoil and danger (as long as they are not affected directly) it seemed that we were moving toward a new kind of normal in the world – with greater instability and uncertainty, with more violence and inequality, with some countries ruined by war, but without world-shattering changes. However, over the past year we saw that this odd “normalcy” was an illusion. Everything was much more fragile than it seemed.
And over the last year we have moved far from any semblance of normality – unless we are not moved by the fact that Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons if Western arms are used on its territory, unless we believe that what is happening in the Middle East will stop. Things will only ease if Iran is forced to take a step back with regard to Israel. This, though, will be very difficult for its theocratic regime, as it would be an admission that all that its people have suffered for the cause of destroying Israel was in vain. Also, no one can rule out that the Israeli prime minister, now that he has the upper hand, will try to deliver a decisive blow to Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu is impatient for Donald Trump to return to the White House, expecting even greater support, without Joe Biden’s reservations (which Netanyahu dismisses, in any case).
The US elections will have an immediate impact on our broader region. Trump wants an end to the war in Ukraine. If this means an end to US support for Ukraine, it will signal victory for Vladimir Putin – and for every autocrat who flatters Trump in return for favors. On the other hand, Trump declares that he will support Israel even more. Such support in the past encouraged Netanyahu and his even more extremist partners in government to consider the Palestinian issue dead. That is why they ignored what Hamas was preparing in Gaza while they supported the aggressive and illegal expansionism of settlers in the West Bank.
US Democrats may be doing Netanyahu’s bidding, as abandoning Israel would jeopardize its existence, but Biden and those around him, like those who will work with Kamala Harris if she is elected, live in the real world. They know that every action brings reaction, every injustice breeds revenge, that dangers are real and great. Trump believes that the world was created to serve him. Netanyahu, despite his much greater political experience, has similar delusions. If the two coexist in power once more, we may well pass the point of no return.
