Talks on S-400 seen nearing a compromise
To unblock the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, US officials have proposed a ‘soft’ decommissioning of the Russian missile systems
During the summer, the United States submitted a detailed proposal for the resolution of the issue regarding Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air-defense system, which would formally allow the country to keep the missiles on its territory but essentially transfer their control to the United States, according to exclusive information obtained by Kathimerini.
As part of the discussions, which appear to be at a more advanced stage than previously known, senior US officials have floated a proposal to transfer the Russian systems to the US-controlled sector of Incirlik base, in the south of Turkey. In this way, Turkey would avoid an about-face, which from its perspective would equate to international embarrassment, while not break the terms of, or violate any possible binding clauses in, its contract with Russia.
Despite the complexity of the issue, it seems that both sides now wish the relevant discussions to reach a successful conclusion, as this would solve a major problem for Washington and NATO and allow Ankara to return to the F-35 fighter jet program.
As Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Pentagon official, confirmed to Kathimerini, White House and Pentagon officials presented the proposal to very high levels in July. “My sources in the region say that during their July 1-2, 2024 visit to Turkey, Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, and Michael Carpenter, special advisor to the President and senior director for Europe at the US National Security Council, recently discussed reviving the F-35 deal with their Turkish counterparts. In exchange for re-entering the F-35 program, they demanded Turkey hand over the S-400s to the United States or transfer them to the US-controlled sector at Incirlik base,” Rubin said.
The day after the visit, the US Embassy in Ankara reported that Wallander and Carpenter had discussed with Turkish officials the development of “additional areas for increased partnership and the goals of increasing long standing defense ties.” Asked by Kathimerini about the exact state of negotiations between the two sides, Pentagon spokesperson Javan Rasnake said that “since 2019, we have relayed to Turkiye our position on its acquisition of the S-400 system and the consequences for doing so, which are enshrined in legislation. There has been no change in the US position or legislation on this topic.”
In reality, however, the submission of this plan for the transfer of the systems to this particular location, together with the legislative initiatives that were unsuccessfully launched in Congress this summer, proves that efforts to resolve the S-400 issue are in full swing, the options under consideration are varied and possible changes in the US position or legislation may be imminent.
Commenting on this particular stage in the intense process, which is taking place a few months before the US elections, Rubin says that “the most dangerous time in American foreign and defense policy is in the sunset of an administration. Presidents feel unencumbered by accountability. They can do whatever they want without ever having to face the voters again. Ambassadors and assistant secretaries, meanwhile, want to set themselves up with golden parachutes to corporate boards or energy and defense companies. The Biden team seems more reckless than most. If there’s one issue about which there should be consensus in Washington and Brussels, it is that Erdogan’s Turkey is a force for instability throughout the region.”
According to Kathimerini’s sources, the Turkish response at this stage is not positive, but discussions are expected to continue this week on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York. As Rubin adds, “their Turkish counterparts refused and countered they would just keep them in the box inside Turkey. The deal is not dead, however, as reviving the F-35 deal will be on the agenda for the United States and Turkey when leaders and security officials meet next week at the UN General Assembly.”
The feeling in Washington is that the US, despite the serious problems that continue to rattle its relations with Turkey, is willing to proceed with the lifting of the Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions and the reintroduction of Ankara to the F-35 program once the S-400 issue has been resolved.
Nothing said by US officials is coincidental and it is worth noting carefully the statements made since the F-16 issue was resolved, statements that methodically point towards closing this issue.
Commenting on this favorable climate for Turkey, Rubin says that “rather than sell Turkey the F-35s, the Biden team might as well just give the aircraft to Russia and China and skip the middleman. It really is the utmost of strategic stupidity and shows that despite all the rhetoric and advances of the past decade, too many in Washington are prepared to throw Athens and Nicosia under the bus. This must not stand.”
The Greek defense
The Greek side is on alert and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis conveyed his concerns in a communication with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on September 5. Kathimerini understands that in Congress, the pro-Greek centers are closely monitoring the issue and are ready to adjust their strategy in line with developments.
Republican Congressman Gus Bilirakis, who has previously spearheaded efforts to curb Turkish aggression and impose controls on the transfer of defense articles to Ankara, said that “any attempt to weaken provisions of CAATSA or provide a sanctions exception to Turkey would leave the United States and our Eastern Mediterranean allies, Greece and Cyprus, more vulnerable to our adversaries. Turkey has no place in the F-35 program.”
