Lequesne: ‘Macron is putting democracy at risk’

“Macron does not know what the answer is about the people’s reaction, but he is taking the risk as he considers politics as gambling,” argues Christian Lequesne, professor of political science at Sciences Po in Paris. Eight days before the legislative elections in France, the editor in chief of the European Review of International Studies (ERIS) explains that President Emmanuel Macron’s elitist and technocratic outlook combined with inflation and the question of national identity were the main ingredients for the rise of the French far-right. In the same vein, he points out to Kathimerini that the rise of the far-right in Europe will probably lead Ukraine to a “dirty peace.”

Starting from the recent result of the European elections in France that put Marine Le Pen’s National Front in first place, would you describe President Macron’s decision to call national elections as risky or even unwise? What does he intend with this move?

It is more risky than unwise. Confronted with a poor result in the European elections that delegitimized his majority, Macron told the French people, “You voted for the far-right in European elections, but are you able to do the same in a national election to the point where I will have to appoint a far-right prime minister?” Obviously, in this poker game, there are two possible responses from the French people: They can give an absolute majority to the far-right, or, on the contrary, they can refuse because national elections are not the same as European elections. Macron does not know what the answer is about the people’s reaction, but he is taking the risk as he considers politics as gambling. But this time the “player” is putting democracy at risk.

In a recent interview you stated that about 40% of French people are in favor of the far-right. What are the reasons behind this growing momentum?

There are three reasons behind the growing momentum. The first is the rejection of France’s technocratic elites, which Macron embodies to the point of caricature. He is generally hated by ordinary people who refuse to identify themselves with what they call the “France from above.” On the contrary, the National Rally (RN), as a populist party, insists all the time that it is incarnating the people. [National Rally President Jordan] Bardella never forgets to point out that he grew up in an underprivileged suburb and that he knows the “true” people. The second reason is social. Unemployment in France is at an all-time low, but there is a segment of the working population that is finding it hard to finish the month because of price inflation on foodstuffs, car fuel, and electricity. This phenomenon also concerns the small middle class which feels downgraded. Finally, there is the issue of national identity. RN’s voters feel that there are too many immigrants and that the Muslim religion in particular is completely changing France’s national identity and values. In this case, the fear concerns all social classes. 

Going deeper into the causes, would you rank immigration and, by extension, demographics as the main reasons for the rise of the far-right? 

Like in other EU countries, immigration plays a crucial role in the rise of the far-right. Far-right voters consider immigrants as potential enemies. It is purely ideological because, without foreigners, most of them would not have their rubbish collected, would not have anyone to look after their elderly parents in retirement homes, and would not be able to eat in restaurants where the kitchens are full of foreign workers. But the abstraction of ideology outweighed the rationality of everyday life. 

If Bardella is elected prime minister of France, will President Macron be forced to resign or will the country be forced into a chaotic legislative situation as former presidents Mitterrand and Chirac warned?

I do not think that President Macron will resign if he has to appoint a far-right prime minister. He will accept a “cohabitation” as has already been the case three times since 1986. As the Constitution confers powers on the president, notably in the fields of diplomacy and defense, there will be permanent conflicts leading to difficult decisions between the sides of the River Seine. No doubt that Macron will prevent the far-right prime minister from implementing his program, so that the latter will have a poor record when the 2027 presidential election happens.

In extension to the previous question, do you think that a wider prevalence of the far-right in France will signal its disengagement from the military arm of NATO, as expressed by Le Pen, or a change of stance on the Russian-Ukrainian war?

Le Pen constantly repeats that General de Gaulle’s 1966 decision to withdraw from NATO’s military command was a good decision, but I don’t believe for a minute she will do the same. Her voters want military security and they know that this comes through NATO. On the other hand, a far-right government could reduce military aid to Ukraine. On this issue, it will be very tense between Macron and his far-right prime minister, because Macron will continue to defend the pro-Ukrainian line in his speeches.

With Moscow seeking to weaken “unfriendly” governments and extreme political forces growing on the European continent, could we see a wider destabilization of the EU?

Clearly, if there is one leader who is rubbing his hands at the rise of the far-right in Europe, and even more so at their arrival in government, it is Vladimir Putin. Putin will be tempted to sell them (and Trump if he is elected in the US) a “dirty peace” that will cut 20% off Ukraine’s territory. If the West accepts this kind of deal, you will immediately see how strong Putin will feel about preventing Moldavia from ever joining the European Union, or even provoking the Baltic states with Russian minorities such as Estonia and Latvia. The European far-right is generally sympathetic to Putin, seeing him as a “true patriot” defending his country’s sovereignty but also a banker who finances their campaigns. For the small countries of Eastern Europe that want to free themselves from Russian imperialism, the rise of the far-right in Europe is the worst signal of all.