‘Macron consistently misjudges the views of the French public,’ says Berkeley expert

France is in danger of entering a permanent conflict, in case President Emmanuel Macron is forced to “cohabit” with Jordan Bardella after the elections. This is the assessment of political scientist Jonah Levy, vice chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Berkeley and an expert on French politics.

In your view, why has the Macron administration failed to convince people to vote for his liberal scheme?

To put it in a Greek context, I would say he is almost the opposite of what SYRIZA was in Greece. That is not being very good or skillful at promoting populism and making all kinds of errors. Macron consistently misjudges the views of the French public regarding his economic reforms, like raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 or repeatedly reducing unemployment benefits. So, he became wildly unpopular. Part of the problem for Macron is that he always seems to be going after the little guy, imposing austerity measures, scaling back public services, and raising gasoline taxes while showering tax cuts on businesses and the affluent. He is often referred to as the president of the rich. In addition, whenever Macron is contested in the streets, even when he is defeated, as occurred with the Yellow Vest Protest, the lesson he always draws is that there is nothing wrong with his reforms, they are great and he just needs to explain things better and the French will go along.

‘As president, [Macron] can play a kind of guerrilla war, a stance of constantly criticizing and obstructing and trying to set the National Rally up for failure’

Recently Macron warned of a “civil war.” What is at stake in the upcoming national elections and how is this likely to affect France’s position in the EU? [Editor’s note: This interview took place before Sunday’s election.]

I do not know about a civil war because if this government is duly elected by democratic means, it will probably be accepted. And we have not seen mass protests against the National Rally in the past. As in the past, I think the party has become much more acceptable to the general public. I think it is also important to note that if the National Rally wins the election, there are several important limits to its power.

One is that with the French economy in such bad shape and having big budget deficits, the government will not be able to go on a spending spree to buy popularity. And it will have to abandon many of the planks of its program. The second limit on an eventual National Rally government is that the president has the legal right to dissolve the legislatures and call new elections every year, meaning every 12 months before dissolution. And what that means is that Jordan Bardella has to be very careful about doing anything unpopular, because as soon as the government becomes unpopular, Macron will pounce, and call new elections. And then, finally, and I think this goes to the other part of your question, there is unclear jurisdiction when it comes to national defense and foreign policy between the prime minister and the president. Macron can threaten to call elections every year, and he can be a little obstructionist, but by and large, the prime minister is now in charge. The one exception to that limit, however, is national defense and foreign policy, it is not clear. And if the National Rally gets the upper hand, it may be able to play a more obstructive role in France’s policy on Ukraine.

If the National Rally wins will Macron be forced to resign?

Macron will not be forced to resign and he will not resign, because there have been cohabitations in the past, in which presidents never resigned. And Macron has even less reason to resign because he can only run twice for president and he has done that. So, if he resigns, he is out of public life. As president, he can play a kind of guerrilla war, a stance of constantly criticizing and obstructing and trying to set the National Rally up for failure, let it govern for three years in difficult economic circumstances, let it have to make the austerity measures and hope that that sort of passage into power would demystify the party.