‘Strange work of propaganda’ at play in Mideast war, says US analyst
WASHINGTON, DC – Turkey’s desire to “re-enact bygone imperial glories” by changing course with regard to its relationship with the West “cannot end well,” according to the well-known Canadian-American political commentator and analyst David Frum.
Speaking to Kathimerini, the former speechwriter for US President George W. Bush also says that the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas is already regional, though its scope, still at low intensity, will be determined by what Iran chooses to do.
The global sentiment toward Israel is shifting every day. Can Israel endure this mounting pressure and achieve the goal of eradicating Hamas?
In the United States, support for Israel is very strong overall. Many different polls find that by a margin of 3:1, Americans want to see their country back Israel against Hamas terrorism in Gaza. Israel’s operations in Gaza cannot continue indefinitely, but at least as far as American public opinion is concerned, Israel can do what it needs to do to defend itself from Hamas.
Israel’s operations cannot continue indefinitely, but they will be long and the US is heading toward elections. Will Biden be able to maintain his unwavering support for Israel or might electoral considerations affect his stance moving forward?
President Biden has to worry politically about two things. Biden’s strong support for Israel is alienating some on the left edge of the Democratic Party. But if he listens to his left edge, he risks losing support in the broad middle of American society. The recent New York Times-Siena College polls that got so much attention found that by 50-39, voters in six swing states thought Trump would do a better job than Biden on the Middle East. Trump of course is identified with banning Muslim immigrants from the United States, approving the Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights, and moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv. Appeasing the left on Hamas-Gaza could dearly cost Biden in the political center and right. Biden understands that very well, I believe.
The war is already regional, but so far the regional aspect is low-intensity
What explanations exist, if any, for the shocking number of protesters carrying Hamas flags in the US and most Western capitals?
A lot of young people use TikTok as their primary source of information about the war. Iran, China and Russia have made large investments in anti-Israel, pro-Hamas messaging on TikTok. A strange work of propaganda has been done. A violent, authoritarian theocratic movement that subordinates women and suppresses religious and sexual minorities has been packaged – and to some extent sold – as a progressive option for forward-looking young people.
The huge migration into Europe since 2015 has rescued many people from terrible hardship. It also reinforced some of the most dangerous extremist tendencies in European cities. I very much worry that we may soon see further acts of violence and terrorism in Europe in support of Hamas.
One overlooked issue in consecutive US administrations has been the support offered to Hamas by some US allies like Qatar and Turkey. Analysts agree that after the October 7 attacks, this cannot be overlooked or tolerated anymore. How can the US and Israel address that?
Qatar is a very wealthy but strategically vulnerable kingdom, trying to maximize its influence in a volatile region. It seeks to appease extremists while at the same time benefiting from US protection. Qatar is now suggesting to its US friends that its past policy will yield results by liberating hostages. We’ll see how true that suggestion proves.
Turkey is acting very differently. Once committed to a democratic and European future, the authoritarian leaders of today’s Turkey seem now to wish to re-enact bygone imperial glories. This cannot end well.
Do you foresee any scenarios where the US might become militarily involved in this ongoing conflict? Are you concerned that we might be headed toward a regional war?
The war is already regional, but so far the regional aspect is low-intensity. Iran is firing missiles at Israel from Yemen and Lebanon. American troops on anti-ISIS missions have come under Iranian attack, with many injuries. US airplanes have retaliated against Iranian assets in the area. The question ahead is: Will Iran escalate the violence? If Iran does not escalate any more, this conflict can be contained. But that’s a decision unfortunately that will be made by some very bad and aggressive actors in Tehran.
