The US and Greek role in the Mideast crisis

As a critical ally and partner of both the United States and Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean, Greece is once again playing a key role, former supreme allied commander for Europe Admiral (ret.) James Stavridis tells Kathimerini, as the movement of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group close to the area makes the Souda Bay naval base in Crete a potentially important piece of the operational puzzle.

Stavridis, who after his retirement from the military became dean at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, describes the attack by Hamas as “a 9/11 event but much bigger in terms of human casualty” based on population. He also talks about a “massive, unprecedented and shocking failure of intelligence” on the part of both Israel and the US,” but stresses that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will be able to “take out a significant chunk of Hamas’ leadership and infrastructure.”

Now the vice chair for global affairs at the Carlyle Group and chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation, Stavridis does not see a mass evacuation in Israel becoming necessary, but if this were to happen for US citizens, he notes that “Greece would be a logical location for support.”

On the possibility of the war expanding, he says the chances are small but not negligible. Referring to efforts by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to act as mediator, Stavridis says mediation does not seem possible between Israel and Hamas given the scale of atrocities, but adds that “if Erdogan believes he could play a role, and given the grave stakes of the crisis, he is welcome to try.”

US military circles, meanwhile, described Erdogan’s recent statements that the American carrier strike group would “participate in massacres in Gaza” as rather nonsensical and unhelpful, noting that the carrier strike force is there to deter Iran and Hezbollah from escalating the crisis.

Analysts, moreover, note that his verbal attacks on the US and Israel may satisfy public sentiment in Turkey, but cause friction in relations with both countries, and this at a time when the Turkish president is trying to improve them.

How important is Greece at an operational level given the location of the Souda Bay naval base?

As always, Greece has a key role as a critical ally, partner and friend in the region both of the United States and Israel. Souda Bay will be especially important given the presence of an American carrier strike group in the Eastern Mediterranean.

If the war expands and a massive evacuation becomes necessary, will Greece act as a hub?

It is highly unlikely that a massive evacuation from Israel would be necessary, but if it occurs for US citizens, Greece would be a logical location for support given the strong ties between Israel and the United States. If the evacuation is out of Gaza, the logical place to go is Egypt, not Greece.

Should Greeks be concerned about possible acts of retaliation in Western countries in the region?

I think all efforts and energy of Hamas and other Islamic terrorist organizations will be directed against Israel principally and secondarily against the United States.

Could Erdogan act as a potential mediator?

Given the level of atrocities committed by the Hamas terrorists – mass rapes, kidnapping and murder of children and babies, cold-blooded murder of innocent civilians – I think “mediation” is not going to be possible. Israel will destroy the leadership of Hamas. If Erdogan believes he could play a role, and given the grave stakes of the crisis, he is welcome to try.

‘Greece has a key role as a critical ally, partner and friend in the region both of the United States and Israel’

Why did Hamas decide to act now?

A confluence of an emboldened Iran; the prospect of a US-Saudi-Israeli alignment to the detriment of the Palestinians; and the fraught internal politics of Israel. Hamas is frustrated, marginalized, and has lashed out. It will ultimately be their undoing, as Israel will clear them out of Gaza, killing thousands of Palestinians in the process.

How bad was this for Israel?

A 9/11 event but much bigger in terms of human casualty. On a population-adjusted basis, a thousand Israeli dead would feel like 35,000 Americans killed. The 100 hostages would be akin to 3,500 hostages in the hands of the Taliban / Al Qaeda after 9/11.

How much responsibility lies with the intelligence services?

This was a massive, unprecedented and shocking failure of intelligence (both Israeli and US). The rape videos, massacre photos, cell phone calls all emerging now and will spur on a strong desire for revenge and a “never again” mentality.

What do you expect next?

Israel uses precision-guided bombs and will take out a significant chunk of Hamas’ leadership and infrastructure. They will send special forces in to find and fix the hostages, then try to extract them – an almost infinite degree of difficulty, but the IDF is very good at this. They will then roll into Gaza in significant numbers and continue to eradicate Hamas. After that, it is very unclear and there are not many good options for Israel. Perhaps turn governance over to the Palestinian Authority? Seek a UN peacekeeping force or mandate? The choices are all bad, but above all they will not permit a repeat of this horrific attack.

How does Israel navigate the delicate balance between Hamas and the Palestinian people in general, or does this not matter?

Israel will first destroy Hamas as a warfighting organization. They may try to improve relations with the Palestinian Authority to find a better system of governance in Gaza.

What could or should be the role of the US?

Carrier strike group, guided missile escorts, fighter squadrons – they are all designed to deter Iran and signal support to Israel. Boots on the ground are unlikely, except for very specialized special forces for hostage rescues involving Americans. We will provide enhanced intelligence, cybersecurity, weapons from preexisting weapons stocks ($2 billion in Israel as war reserve) and diplomatic cover as the international community inevitably takes up the Palestinian side.

What are the chances of a wider war?

Low but not negligible. The scenario would be a “smoking gun” of Iran directing the attack and that could lead to Israel attacking Iran. That could lead to Hezbollah launching some or all of the 130,000 missiles they have and opening a northern front. Neither Iran nor Israel (and especially the US) want to see that, so it is overall unlikely but not impossible – say a 10-20% chance depending on miscalculation.

How long will the war last?

This will go on for many weeks and perhaps months, but overall Israeli firepower will tell. The hard part for Israel, as always, will be getting out, not getting in.