Erdogan keeping the army close with Aegean tension

Brinkmanship over the Aegean is something the Turkish military particularly likes and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan desperately needs the army. This is the dimension in the field of Greek-Turkish relations presented to Kathimerini from Washington by Sinan Ciddi, Turkish-born, British-educated associate professor of national security studies at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, Virginia. He also believes that Erdogan’s goal is not a direct conflict with Greece, stressing that Turkey has nothing to gain from such a development.

With regard to the prospect of upgrading Turkey’s F-16s and US-Turkish relations more broadly, he appears rather wary of Ankara’s assessment that Republicans are more likely to favor Turkey’s interests.

Erdogan maintains particularly high tones in the Aegean. Politically, does he gain from this tactic?

I would say that he has benefited from escalating rhetorical tensions over the Aegean and this does play well on Turkish television whereby Turkish citizens take the majority of the news in Turkey – and, whether they are pro- or anti-Erdogan, there is widespread support for essentially looking strong in the Aegean and not allowing it to turn into a “Greek lake.” It’s unclear how much he essentially gains from this tactic but it is clear that Turks are primarily concerned right now with economic issues – and Erdogan understands that he has more problems at home facing re-election based on the economy. It doesn’t mean that he is not thinking about the issues with Greece, but I would say foreign policy issues are right now less relevant to him than economic issues.

‘There is not much love on the Hill for Turkey simply because it seems to be a spoiler and an antagonizer’

Are there any differentiations in the government camp regarding this strategy of Erdogan’s?

I haven’t seen any differentiations within the AKP or the National Security apparatus. I would say that the Turkish military probably likes this sort of approach that Erdogan has in terms of brinkmanship over the Aegean – contesting airspace, waters etc – simply because the Turkish military has long had the desire to essentially exhort more strength or force without recognizing or challenging Greece’s sovereignty claims over the Aegean. And the military support is something that Erdogan desperately needs. And don’t forget “Mavi Vatan” [“Blue Homeland”] was the idea of a Turkish admiral and so I would say the military is very keen to keep this ongoing. It keeps them busy and keeps them closer and more loyal to Erdogan.

Do you agree with the opinion that the period until the Turkish elections is the most dangerous for the possibility of an episode in the Aegean? What are the chances of such a scenario?

I agree that this is the most dangerous time between the two countries simply because as you say the Turkish elections will have to take place some time before June 2023. So any sort of competitive edge that Erdogan can get in the polls is something that is worthwhile for him to pursue, but let’s also not forget that any sort of conflict in the Aegean or the Mediterranean will further bring Turkey into a catastrophic state of diplomatic relations with the EU. You will potentially have two NATO countries going into a war with each other if this ever comes to realization. Even though tensions and escalatory actions are carried out, a potential outright conflict? I don’t think this is the aim, because I don’t think he benefits from this in any shape or form simply because Turkey would not only be brought to war but it would lose a considerable amount of legitimacy and favor within the international community if he were seen to be or perceived to be starting a war.

How is Turkey’s request for F-16 upgrade kits going and what do you think will happen?

Just sitting there. There is no momentum of movement on this. The various lobbies, including the Greek and Armenian lobbies, in Washington have ensured that the Congress as it is situated right now [Tuesday, November 8] is not in favor of granting Turkey any sort of movement on the sale of F-16s and upgrade kits. That could possibly change in the new year if Congress switches over, especially in the Senate, from Democratic control to Republican control simply because Turks think that they can actually get more favor with Republicans in charge. That being said, I would also say that there is not much love on the Hill for Turkey simply because it seems to be a spoiler and an antagonizer.