Issue of US F-16 sales to Turkey ‘not over,’ says HALC chief

The non-inclusion by the US Senate of two provisions in the country’s annual defense spending bill attaching strings to the sale of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade kits to Turkey can be attributed to procedural reasons, according to the executive director of the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC), Endy Zemenides.

Speaking to Kathimerini, he explains why the matter is “not over” for the amendment that was introduced by Democrat Senator Bob Menendez, who also has the power to veto a defense deal between the American government and Ankara when the time comes.

Zemenides also believes that Turkey needs to demonstrate a change of overall course in its foreign policy if it hopes to sit back down at the negotiating table with the United States, arguing that this is why a compromise in the form of a simultaneous upgrading of the Turkish and Greek militaries is not the answer. Apart from Greek-Turkish relations, Washington’s problems with Ankara extend to many other issues, he stresses.

Two amendments demanding that terms and conditions are attached by the Pentagon to the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey were left out of the Senate defense budget bill. How did things come to that and what does this decision mean?

It is actually one amendment, that of Senator Menendez. The second amendment, by Senator [Chris] Van Hollen adopts exactly the same terms, but also includes a few additional parameters concerning the Kurds, in the form of political message. The reason why the amendment was not included, however, is basically procedural. The Senate delayed taking the necessary steps for the main bill’s approval and now it’s rushing through procedures, which need to be completed by the end of the year, while senators are also complaining because they want to focus on their pre-election campaigns ahead of the November midterms. As such, a lot of sideline issues were left out of the defense spending bill, beyond the particular amendment. People need to understand that the process is not over; it is just getting started, in fact. More specifically, there are two more stages to go before we know whether Menendez’s amendment is approved. First there’s the technical consultations that are still under way – in fact, the Turkish foreign minister expressed his frustration that they’re not over yet. This will then be followed by the notification of Congress, which may lodge objections, thus starting a new cycle of procedures.

So the issue is not settled at all. Based on procedure, when can we expect to have some idea of where things stand?

Exactly. There’s a good chance the amendment will be passed after all. The procedure needs to be completed by the end of the Congress’ term, which means by the first week of January. But I think that we’ll know what happens a bit earlier, after the midterm elections but before Christmas. 

There are concerns in Greece that Turkey has intensified lobbying efforts in Washington on this matter and may, therefore, get what it wants. What do you think?

It’s true that Turkey has been making a major push. But this particular matter emerged because of procedural issues and had absolutely nothing to do with Turkey’s lobbying. 

In any case, the Biden administration seems opposed to such amendments as a matter of principle.

Yes, the Biden government believes that such terms and conditions tie its hands. And not just towards Turkey, but also towards other countries. It wants to have as much flexibility as possible when it comes to managing defense policy.

And what about the Republicans? What is their position on the issue?

At this stage, the Republicans are not taking a position. They say they will once they have the defense agreement in front of them and can act accordingly.

Let’s consider the scenario that the amendment is left out of America’s defense act. What would this mean in practical terms? Does Senator Menendez have any other avenue of recourse?

Yes, he has the right to exercise a veto against the implementation of the defense agreement, when that time comes. More specifically, there are four people who can veto this particular agreement: the chairs and ranking members of the Senate and Congress foreign relations committees. In theory, the government can sidestep this part of the procedure and implement its own policy, as [former US president Donald] Trump did, but Biden has said that he will only proceed with Congress’ approval.

Change of attitude

Do you see the possibility of some kind of compromise so that Turkey is granted an upgrade of its F-16 fighter fleet, but Greece is also given an upgrade that would give it a qualitative advantage against Turkey?

A scenario of this kind would fail to address the concerns of Congress, which is maintaining a specific stance towards Turkey, not just because of Turkish aggression in the Aegean, but also with regard to other choices made by Ankara: the acquisition of Russian S-400 missiles, raising objections to Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO, close ties to the Kremlin, the Kurdish issue. The matter is a lot more complex, therefore. In any case, Turkey will need to change its attitude if it wants to negotiate with the United States. Washington no longer regards Ankara as a reliable ally. That said, the American government wants to keep the door open, whether this is for a change of tack by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or a change of the guard in the Turkish government. Restoring bilateral cooperation to previous levels will not be easy, however, and this would also be true in the latter case, given what we have seen of the Turkish opposition. The United States is no longer optimistic about anti-American Turkey and just hopes for some improvement in ties.