‘Erdogan wants a deal in the Aegean’

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will do everything he can to prevent an energy project in the Aegean that does not include Turkey, but he will stop short of “seeking a physical confrontation with Greece,” Asli Aydintasbas, a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, tells Kathimerini.

The former journalist puts emphasis on the nationalist reflexes of her native country in the runup to the 2023 elections, saying that Erdogan may be lagging behind in the polls, “but things could change over a few months.” After all, she says, election results could be challenged if the margin is too close.

Aydintasbas adds that Erdogan likes “playing Russia and the US off against each another,” noting however that the strategy comes at a hefty cost to Turkey.

Asked about relations with Greece, she says that the media partake in the nationalist agenda.

Greece is again watching the movements of a Turkish drillship. What do you think Erdogan’s motivations and goals are in the Aegean?

Erdogan wants to be in the energy equation in East Med – and seems determined to prevent the implementation of a project that bypasses Turkey. In order to achieve his goal, he seems to be pursuing an assertive posturing. Having said that, I do not think Erdogan is seeking a physical confrontation with Greece or something like the annexation of Cyprus in an election year. He might welcome tensions, as it helps rile up nationalism, but he doesn’t want to go so far as to push for an actual clash or altercation in the Aegean or East Med. Ultimately, my sense is Erdogan wants an arrangement in the East Med that includes Turkey and Cyprus – an energy sharing agreement. 

Erdogan seems to be keeping a foot in both camps, US and Russian. Does this strategy work for Turkey? For example, we see some implications in the field of military equipment.

This balancing act is a game Turkey’s president feels very comfortable with – playing Russia and the US off against each other, all the while trying to extract economic or political concessions from both. As his relations with the West are so fragile, he uses relations with Russia as an instrument – a veiled threat to the West to signal Turkey has options. But along the way, Erdogan is hoping to extract material benefits or political concessions. This is a high-stakes gamble and it has cost Turkey a lot – in terms of being framed as an “unreliable ally” and shunned by the Western defense architecture. Turkey was excluded from the F-35 program because of its purchase of Russian S-400s. But over the years, Ankara has grown more dependent on Russia because of Syria and natural gas. 

Recently, Turkey has also been trying to expand its economic ties with Russia, hoping to benefit from the Western sanctions by providing an economic lifeline to Moscow. This is a very sinister deal but helps Erdogan economically in the runup to the elections. 

How is the political scene shaping up ahead of the 2023 elections? Who could beat Erdogan and could they bring something new to Turkey’s foreign policy?

It’s not clear who the opposition candidate will be. CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu seems to really want it. But inside the opposition camp, there is no consensus. Others, such as the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, poll higher than Kilicdaroglu, but they have not emerged so far either. At this point, Erdogan’s numbers are low and below any of his possible four rivals. But we are still quite far from elections and things could change over a few months in Turkey.

Could Erdogan reject an election result that would not favor him?

There are always fears that we’ll have a repeat of local elections – a cancellation – if the results are too close. But the conventional wisdom here is, if the lead is big enough, that is three points or higher, it is hard to play foul. If it is a tight race, all bets are off.

What is the prevailing opinion in Turkey regarding relations with Greece?

Turkey’s media and bureaucracy are controlled by a nationalist ideology and it is easy to make the case to them that Turkey is always right, that it is always unfairly treated, that its neighbors are actually its enemies etc. This is what’s happening. In the media, every talking head is saying Greece is violating Turkish airspace, trying to hem Turkey in along its own shores, lining up Western support behind its own interests. So citizens naturally think Turkey is hugely wronged and unfairly treated. I’m sure it’s the same story in Greece. What we need is a different climate, more than anything else. Turkey and Greece are heading to a lose-lose situation and as long as they cannot sit and talk things through, there will be no winners in the Aegean or Mediterranean. More than anything else, it is the political climate that matters. And we need a different climate. Bilateral issues will always be around. But if we get to a place where conversation can take place, then our respective populations will understand that we are all in the same boat, that it’s not a zero-sum game, and that Turkey and Greece could peacefully live side by side.