Kicking the can down the road
I have been trying to get into the minds of the technocrats following Greece to see how they think. I sit there trying to imagine a person examining the Greek government proposals and saying: “This program simply will not work. There is no way the Greeks can raise all those taxes. In a few months they will run out of money and slide back into recession.”
A fellow technocrat will respond: “Look, if this is how they want it to be, just leave it, it’s OK. We will be able to say that the Greeks have suffered an extra bit more. The Germans will be pleased to see the rich pay a little bit extra in taxes and everything will be fine. In any case, in a few months’ time they will be back here asking for money. And then there is the reforms laid out in the took kits – which, of course, they will never see through.”
It’s not the first time we’ve heard all that, of course. Unrealistic goals – like 50 billion euros’ worth of privatizations, for example – have in the past been included in official documents at times of despair. Exhaustion and disappointment from the failure of the Greek political system to produce results have fueled an oddly cynical response.
Rule No 1 is the need to avoid tension and crises, and defer them to a later date. Rule No 2 is to avoid a situation where an institution can be held responsible for causing a default or a disaster.
We have come to be considered a “special case,” which is bad. Some experts have decided that Greece would be better suited for a program designed by the World Bank, because what it needs is to strengthen, if not rebuild, its institutions and public administration. It’s what Anglo-Saxons call nation building.
As it happens, the lenders are caught up in our own black hole. They made a mess and they seem to have no idea as to how Greece can make use of its incredible potential, spur economic growth and leave the financial crisis and debts behind.
The creditors failed, and so did we. And now they are thinking of ways to implement Rule No 3, which is pretty simple: “Extend and pretend.” This is more or less where we stand now, save for some unexpected development. After all, these are something that special cases tend to attract.
