Leverage by proxy

A news story by Turkey’s Anadolu news agency about Turkish officials stating that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will raise the whole range of Greek-Turkish disputes in the Aegean during his meeting with Greek counterpart George Gerapetritis in Athens on November 8 has caused a stir.

It could not have been otherwise. Talks on the “positive agenda” could not have gone on indefinitely. The time has come to start the discussion on the core issues affecting bilateral relations. And if Greece has drawn its “red lines,” refusing to negotiate anything except the delimitation of the continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone, Turkey also has its own “red lines,” which have been formed over decades. Because if it didn’t, it would be inconsistent with what it has been publicly claiming for years.

The question that arises, therefore, is the degree of intensity of the talks around a series of controversial issues. The Greek side clearly will not risk a rupture with Ankara, but neither will Turkey, which, as a regional power, has many issues to manage, in a period of particular fluidity in our wider region.

Given that foreign policy is not an exercise in juggling skills but the projection of a country’s power on its periphery and more widely, it becomes rather clear – in the opinion of some – that Turkey is superior to Greece in this regard. Of course, our country does not lack special political heft, which, however, is largely derived from its participation in the European Union. But this is treated by those outside the bloc as “borrowed” leverage, not of immediate application or effectiveness.

In addition to this, there are also the interests of major European powers which have revised their earlier decisions in accordance with the needs of the current situation. Only a few days ago, Germany lifted the curbs on military exports to Turkey which had been imposed in 2016 and 2019 because they were used in Turkish operations in northern Syria. Lord Palmerston, who served as Britain’s prime minister in the middle of the 19th century, famously said that “we have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” The quote still applies, at least in part.

There has never been a lack of controversy surrounding foreign policy issues in Greece, primarily between political formations that are or identify themselves as “parties of power.” The most devastating of these led to the National Schism (1910-1922), as a result of the clash between King Constantine I and Prime Minister Eleftherios Venizelos regarding the country’s foreign policy and whether Greece should enter World War I.

We haven’t reached that point, of course. With regard to the upcoming meeting between Gerapetritis and Fidan in Athens, the Greek government believes that nothing essential will ultimately come out of it. It’s quite likely that Ankara’s assessments are similar.