The Sinwar reset
“Although the Middle East remains beset with perennial challenges, the region is quieter than it has been for decades.”
This now infamous September 2023 observation by President Joe Biden’s national security adviser – Jake Sullivan – couldn’t even outlast Liz Truss’ tenure as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Ever since Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel upended this optimistic view of the region, the Biden administration has had to manage a Middle East that is anything but quiet.
After several months of unsuccessful attempts to secure a ceasefire or prevent regional spillover, there may finally be a chance for a reset. After a one-year manhunt, Israeli forces were able to kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Undoubtedly, some publications will force us to endure inane obituaries giving some type of credence to Sinwar’s madness. History, however, will remember him only for two things: (a) because of Sinwar, more Jews were killed on October 7, 2023 than on any day since the Holocaust; and (b) he put his own people in harm’s way – not only by provoking this war with Israel, not only by using Palestinians as human shields, but by – as Graeme Wood observed in The Atlantic – leading them without a “sense of urgency to conclude suffering, because of his belief that violent death is not only preordained but noble.”
There is already much debate over the significance of Sinwar’s death. There will be those who urge Israel – once again – to “take the win” and de-escalate. This makes me recall the European diplomats at the last Delphi Economic Forum urging the same de-escalation, just a day (or in some cases, a few hours) before Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel.
To be sure, an end to hostilities, the release of hostages and increased humanitarian aid are all necessary. Still, they are insufficient to bring us to peace and stability. There was after all a ceasefire in effect on October 6, 2023. And one should not forget that Sinwar himself was released in a 2011 prisoner exchange deal for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Sinwar’s main strategic goal on October 7 was to disrupt the process of regional integration and cooperation as embodied in initiatives like the Abraham Accords, the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), or in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). A real “win” would entail reopening the door to the brief era of regional cooperation that was being celebrated before October 7.
The visit of Assistant Secretary of State Jim O’Brien to the region this week presents the opportunity to begin reopening this door. As I argued in this newspaper eight months before the October 7 attacks, the Blinken State Department has neglected the “3+1” mechanism (Greece-Cyprus-Israel + the United States) it inherited from the Pompeo State Department. Besides Assistant Secretary of State Geoffrey Pyatt, there has been no effort at a senior level to optimize this diplomatic initiative.
The war in the Middle East makes the neglect of the “3+1” even more glaring. The United States certainly rushed to Greece and Cyprus asking for help with evacuations and basing capabilities over the last year. The Cyprus-based Amalthea Initiative has played an indispensable humanitarian role over the last several months. And both Athens and Nicosia have maintained close and productive diplomatic relationships with Israel and Arab states.
Now imagine that there was an institutional framework which allowed all this – and more – to be coordinated. What if there was a permanent secretariat (a suggestion made by Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides when he served as foreign minister) for the “3+1” based in the region or a State Department deputy Aassistant secretary or special envoy for the “3+1”? Instead, this initiative and the Eastern Mediterranean collaboration built around it is being managed (and even that characterization may be generous) out of a Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs that is overwhelmed with the war in Ukraine and whose view on the region is still overly and inappropriately influenced by the Turkey desk.
Greece, Cyprus and Israel laid the foundations for the Eastern Mediterranean as a region. Institutions – additional trilaterals between Greece, Cyprus and Arab states; the EMGF; and more – resulted from their cooperation. They link the European Union, NATO, and America’s Middle East partners and allies. Their cooperation led to the first regional US Congressional caucus – the Congressional Hellenic Israel Alliance Caucus – and the landmark Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act.
Making the most of these strong foundations by upgrading the US role should be a paramount priority for the State Department – and Assistant Secretary O’Brien should be discussing this very topic in Athens and Nicosia this week.
Eastern Mediterranean cooperation – which began with energy collaboration – has over the past decade been compared to the European Coal and Steel Community. Just as that early European institution was formed in reaction to war, deepening Eastern Mediterranean cooperation via the “3+1” could lay the groundwork for peace rather than de-escalation. And if it reopens the door to regional cooperation, it will be the ultimate defeat of Sinwar and his cult of death. May his memory be forgotten.
Endy Zemenides is executive director of the Hellenic American Leadership Council.
