Beware the two-party system
With leftist SYRIZA in free fall, the likelihood of a return to the pre-crisis state of having what is effectively a two-party system, with PASOK in the main opposition, can by no means be ruled out. The socialist party has already deposed SYRIZA from second place in public opinion polls, even though its ratings do not point to it being popular enough to becoming a governing force. Following the election of a new leader, however, it may, under certain circumstances, increase its upward momentum.
A simplistic analysis could reach the conclusion that the political system is returning to the normality of a traditional bipartisan system now that the economic crisis is over, with the political forces of the center-right and center-left alternating in government. But the crisis is not over. The threat of being ousted from the eurozone may no longer loom, but the country has not made up for the institutional, political and economic deficits that brought the threat on in the first place. It remains vulnerable, therefore, in an international setting defined by a weakened European paradigm, a demographic quagmire, energy uncertainty, diplomatic upheaval, geopolitical turmoil, a raging climate crisis and unpredictable migration.
The threat of being ousted from the eurozone may no longer loom, but the country has not made up for the institutional, political and economic deficits that brought the threat on in the first place
This is one of the basic reasons why going back to the good old pre-memorandum years cannot be taken for granted. Another reason has to do with the responsibility for Greece’s bankruptcy of the two-party system that prevailed in the post-dictatorship era. PASOK and New Democracy were responsible for creating the monstrous clientelism-driven state that lies at the root of Greece’s anti-reform stagnation. They played an equal role in stoking the inefficacy of the institutions and parasitic capitalism that hinders the reconstruction of the productive base, the rationalization and transparency in the utilization of EU funds and public resources, in innovation and in the modernization of the educational system.
In this regard, the return of the bipartisan system, with ND and PASOK vying for power, can only lead to a repetition of disaster, because neither one or the other changed its dominant point of view, despite a rather transparent display of self-criticism after Greece’s economy collapsed. Fear of the political cost continues to determine central decisions, the state continues to be treated like chattel and there are no mechanisms to ensure the renewal of the political staff.
What’s more, we are not done with the toxic offshoots of the austerity period either, like the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party, the nationalist-populist Independent Greeks and others of that ilk. This is evident in the rising popularity of parties to the right of ND, the increase in aggressive abstention from the polls and the lackluster performance of the mainstream parties.
The ND-PASOK bipartisan system, as we knew it in the decades before the crisis, is clinically dead and can only be kept alive artificially. And since there is no centrist party like To Potami on the horizon, nor leaning for cooperation on the basis of programmatic convergences – despite the economic hardships of the memorandum years – a political impasse seems to lie ahead, and that without a strong SYRIZA that could provide an alibi and easy answers for a national failure.
