Odysseus would be envious
In hindsight, it is clear that Israel’s booby-trapping Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies was not just a show of force, a message that it had penetrated deep into the organization. Nor was it a rushed job because of suspicions that its Trojan horse may have been discovered. The trap was far more complicated, its target more important. With even its low-tech communications equipment out of commission, Hezbollah’s leadership had to resort to the safest way of communicating – in person. But Israel’s penetration was deeper into Iran’s main proxy in the region than the group’s leadership could have suspected. So, when its leaders were all together, under an apartment block in Beirut, Israel’s bombs decapitated the organization, killing an unknown number of civilians as well. Odysseus himself would have been envious of the plan and its execution.
Just as we could not know what Israel was planning, as common sense and the country’s closest allies hoped to avoid an escalation of the tension between Israel and Iran, we don’t know what else Israel intends to do. Does it know how this story ends, which began with Hamas’ slaughter of civilians outside Gaza and the kidnapping of hundreds of citizens, soldiers and foreigners? From the start it was clear that the raid’s savagery was designed to provoke the strongest possible Israeli reaction, but most likely not even Hamas’ leaders expected what came after October 7.
It seems that on that day Hamas surprised not only Israel’s security forces but also Tehran and its proxies in the region. It is believed that the Iranians knew that the terror organization they supplied and trained was preparing something, but they did not know the date nor the extent of the operation. As the raid took place, Hamas called on all its allies to join forces against Israel.
Clearly, Iran was not ready for this, as the reaction of the (now deceased) leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was, on the one hand, to make life unlivable for the citizens of northern Israel and to tie down Israeli forces in the north, but also (in silent agreement with Israel) to avoid an escalation that would threaten regional war. Now, either Israel caught wind that Hezbollah (Iran, in other words) was planning something big, or Benjamin Netanyahu wants an escalation so that his country’s allies, who are fed up with the endless bloodshed in Gaza, are obliged to support Israel against Iran. We don’t know if Israel believes that this will lead its enemies to some kind of agreement with it, or whether it thinks that it has no alternative to never-ending war.
