Donald Trump and Greece
The chances of Donald Trump being re-elected president of the United States are high. All pundits give this scenario a 50% chance, especially when focusing on key states rather than the general vote.
The main question being discussed in every other country is what his foreign policy will be and who will exercise it. All indications are that Trump has decided this time to completely cut himself off from the deep establishment of Washington. He no longer wants experienced generals in the position of national security adviser, not even people like former secretary of state Mike Pompeo who was considered the most sensible of his first-term team. He is likely to staff his team with the likes of Richard Grenell, who shocked everyone as Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Germany, Robert Lighthizer who threatens to impose tariffs on products imported from the EU, and Robert O’Brien who was his last national security adviser. They are all personally devoted to Trump and hold very strong views that have nothing to do with the “orthodox views” of the US foreign policy establishment.
Trump is sure to blackmail Ukraine for an immediate solution to the war by pressuring President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cave. In the Middle East, he will leave Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu free to complete his plan.
How will all this affect Greece? If the past is anything to go by, Trump will be completely unpredictable. This does not mean that the State Department will always follow and implement his policy, but he will be predictably unpredictable.
Former Greek premier Alexis Tsipras had heard from Trump’s own lips that it was “a very bad idea to stay in the euro. I’m telling you, from a business point of view, it was a very bad decision.” And he later told Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis that it might not be a bad idea for Greece to sink a Turkish warship because “that way you will reach an agreement.” While he was saying these things, the other American officials who were listening showed their despair with their eyes.
But we must also say that the Trump administration was unpredictable towards Turkey. Pompeo had visited Greece without necessarily following up with a visit to Turkey, violating basic tenets of American diplomacy, and he dared to include Alexandroupoli in the official defense cooperation of the two countries. Under President Joe Biden, American diplomatic tradition has returned, as exemplified by the paltry “Blinken list” of used weapons systems for Greece, the equally lukewarm commitments to maintain the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean and the game with the F-35 fighter jets.
