Unsteady Europe in the global storm
Europe’s difficulties are multiplying. Last week started with Mario Draghi declaring in his report on the future of the European Union that if the Union does not change radically it will not survive; it ended with Vladimir Putin threatening that if Ukraine uses long-range Western weapons inside his country, this “would mean that NATO countries – the US, European countries – are at war with Russia.” The threat will not change the decision that the United States and Britain seem to have taken already, as Russia is receiving ballistic missiles from Iran, which will intensify the continual bombardment of cities throughout Ukraine. But no one should underestimate the gravity of the situation, as Putin is capable of doing anything if he finds himself with his back to the wall. At the same time, Europe is sinking into uncertainty as tensions rise among member-states, because of economic difficulties and the increasing influence of far-right parties playing on fears provoked by immigration.
Just when the European Union needs to show determination in protecting its principles, and courage in dealing with the time’s challenges, the fear (more than the reality) of the rise of the extreme right is leading its two largest powers into haphazard actions which undermine their leadership roles. France has not recovered from the snap national elections called by President Emmanuel Macron after Marine Le Pen’s hard-right won the European Parliament elections, as no group of parties has the necessary number of seats to govern. Germany is putting the Schengen Treaty’s open borders at risk, reinstating controls at land borders after the strong showing by the extreme-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in two state elections two weeks ago. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition is threatened not only by the opposition but also by intense disagreement between the government’s three partners on major issues such as the economy and migration. In other words, the EU is far from being in a position for member-states to agree on issuing “common safe assets” and scrapping unanimity in decision making, as Draghi suggests.
Not only Europe faces challenges, as the broader region and the whole world are gripped by uncertainty. In the United States, the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Tuesday showed a country teetering between two very different world views, just a few weeks before the presidential elections. The Chinese economy is slowing down, and with it the world’s, too. Tension between Israel and Iran, though sky-high, still appears to be under control. But if Western support for Israel wavers – which could happen if the NATO-Russia front erupts – it is likely that Iran and its proxies in the region will seize the opportunity to raise pressure on Israel. Another interesting parameter of current events is Turkey’s role if NATO comes into direct confrontation with Russia. Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan be able to keep gaining from his close ties with Putin and not toe the Western Alliance’s line?
For Greece, every aspect of the complicated situation is decisive. The turbulence in the EU, the global economy, the NATO-Russia clash, developments in the Middle East and the choices that Turkey will make will have a direct effect on our daily lives and on our future.
