Erdogan’s strategy for influence in Africa
Turkey is among the five most powerful countries operating on the African continent. It is present in regional crises, developing the role of mediator, currently between Ethiopia and Somalia. It sells defense equipment, with an emphasis on drones, and has established military and naval bases. It has managed to exert soft power in local culture and religion by offering various programs to mainly young people, whom they train in Turkey before they return to their countries as quasi-ambassadors of Turkish positions. In fact, having liberalized the visa regime for several African countries over more than 12 years, it has made it easier for them to visit Turkey at low cost, thus multiplying social and scientific interaction.
At the diplomatic level, Ankara attempts to take advantage of Africa’s potential in global affairs, using anti-systemic, anti-Western and anti-colonial discourse. It presents itself as a rising middle-level power with a wider reach, which supposedly has its own way of reaching out to the “Global South” because, among other things, they have similar aspirations: to change the existing associations and the Western-oriented order of things so that the less powerful can have a say.
Having acquired the role of protector of persecuted and wronged Muslims around the world, Ankara is trying to emerge as a power that listens to the concerns of African leaders and wants to support them through business deals, but without looking to exploit them, as traditionally done by the “evil Western colonialists,” whom President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself often unabashedly names to become more likable to local audiences and leaders.
On the other hand, it tries to convince its Western partners, and especially the Americans, that Turkey’s presence and approach in Africa often work against the interests of Russia and, secondarily, China. This is important: not in favor of Westerners, but at the expense of their competitors. Sometimes this may be true, but in practice Ankara only serves its own interests.
Ankara’s trump card in the game of influence in Africa is undeniably Turkish Airlines, which flies to more parts of the continent than any other foreign airline. There are additional commercial, energy and especially construction Turkish interests that give impetus to Ankara’s efforts.
Turkey approaches Africa in a strategic way, wanting to develop centers of influence and consolidate them. It sees opportunities in the continent and seeks to expand its footprint in more states. It has a plan and a method; however, it spends significant capital (it redeems it with the participation of its companies in large projects and defense contracts) and perhaps in the future it will overextend its capabilities, while gradually the competition will grow.
The biggest danger for Ankara, however, is the megalomania of its current leadership and the consequent need to make a constant display of power far beyond its borders.
Constantinos Filis is director of the Institute of Global Affairs and an associate professor at the American College of Greece.
