A window of opportunity
Many former governments would envy where Greece is, politically, right now: with no real opposition and no sign of one appearing anytime soon.
Protests, marches, strikes and other such actions have plummeted in the past five years, possibly because the experience of what it’s like to have a left-wing party in power is recent, as is the memory of the crash landing into reality. The country’s international reputation has been fully restored to the extent that Greece became the front cover on The Economist on the subject of cautionary tales. The economy has bounced back after years of continuous pressure and whereas France is in the grips of an unprecedented political crisis and Germany is effectively without a government, Greece has an administration with a strong majority in Parliament and a fresh mandate from the people.
What’s more, there are no major political milestones looming on the horizon that could bring clouds to these clear skies: no presidential elections that could undermine the government’s stability, no municipal elections, no elections for the European Parliament… Only clear sailing ahead. It is a spectacular window of opportunity that could well last another three years, until the next general election. What happens then remains to be seen, because a one-party government looks extremely unlikely and the choice of coalition partners unappealing.
What we have, in short, is an ideal political situation – now and quite possibly later. What we also have, however, is the curse of the second term, a curse that has blighted every prime minister in Greece’s recent history. Fatigue grows, political capital and time start dwindling fast, ministers become complacent and any appetite for reform is lost. The second term in office usually also comes with symptoms of arrogance and introversion driven by fear. Sometimes even with a misplaced sense of superiority over the state and its institutions. In such periods, the prime minister’s office is often like a submarine that hasn’t come up to surface for months and lacks a sense of reality.
The critical moment that determines how the second term pans out usually comes when a tough or unpopular decision needs to be made. If the government backs down, it can start counting its last days in office. The Costas Simitis government and its handling of social security reform is an excellent case in point. No one can say with certainty that the damage from the reform would have been greater than the damage from backing down from it; what we can say is that when you announce a measure and don’t follow through, you often end up twice the loser: held responsible for wanting to pass the measure in the first place and accused of prevarication when you don’t.
This is where Greece is now. The window of opportunity should not be lost – there are no guarantees that it will open up again soon.
