As Harris honeymoon fades, doubts persist

Since inheriting the Democratic Party nomination for the presidency without a fight after US President Joe Biden’s exit on July 21, Vice President Kamala Harris’s honeymoon period was marked by rallies, optics of party unity and consistent positive coverage by mainstream media.  

However, the Happy Harris tour ends with the Democratic convention. 

Her candidacy has inevitably re-energized a party that was resigned to defeat under Biden. Harris’s impressive fundraising – $310 million in July alone – attests to this renewed enthusiasm. Although Harris provides Democrats with a fighting chance, she still confronts an uphill battle. Since the start of her honeymoon period, Harris has not answered any media questions, refused interviews and largely avoided any major policy announcements, except one outlining broad economic proposals short on detail. Lingering questions about who is Kamala Harris and what she represents still persist. She will attempt to clarify this at the Democratic Convention, and the weeks beyond, as she remains largely undefined and untested.

Although improving poll numbers show her slightly ahead of Trump in some swing states, they are largely an uptick that fall within the margin of error. Despite the media hype and her party’s enthusiasm, Harris is clearly not yet in a commanding position over Trump. Overconfidence risks defeat. Furthermore, the Harris-Walz ticket is the most progressive Democratic team since 1988, which was roundly defeated by the George Bush Senior. By choosing Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, Harris took the cautious approach to placate her left-wing base and preserve party unity. 

Harris’s political career in California was spent pivoting between center-left and far-left according to political necessity and circumstances. In California, this approach largely worked as Republican conservatism is practically a dying breed, perhaps even extinct. However, for the general election Harris will struggle in tacking to the center and appealing to a broader swathe of the national electorate. Specifically, her mission is to convince thousands of independent voters of her solid centrist credentials in seven swing states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The last thing they want is the Californization of America. 

Her task will be eased should Donald Trump veer too much off-script and prove a loose-cannon. Since Harris’s coronation, the former president has been struggling to articulate an effective line of attack on Harris, including questioning her race. He again fell short in his two hour interview with Elon Musk on X on August 12th by rarely referring to Harris directly. 

With less than three months before Election Day, any attempt by Harris to sugarcoat, disown or distance herself from Biden’s economic legacy will largely fall on deaf ears, particularly if additional adverse economic data emerges before November 5th. 

Together with the party’s presidential nomination, Harris also inherits Bidenomics, which for many ordinary, working-class Americans – whether justified or not – largely means high inflation.  Since Biden became president, prices have risen by roughly 20%, squeezing families struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck. Harris will attempt to distinguish herself from Biden while not rejecting Bidenomics outright. Harris will likely continue to be short on detail, avoid any extended media interviews, and focus her rhetoric on broad policies with popular appeal – particularly against big businesses – such as affordable childcare, healthcare and drug prices. 

In her economic campaign speech in North Carolina, Harris vowed to create an “opportunity economy”, which includes banning “price gouging” by food stores and creating assistance programmes for first-time home-buyers. She also generally opposes Trump’s large-scale tariff plans on imports. Overall, she is following a standard electoral pattern: promise a bit of something for everyone, ensure no one feels left behind and win votes. 

In foreign policy, broad bipartisan support for a tougher stance on China will continue regardless of who wins the election. On Ukraine, Harris will continue Biden’s policy of supporting Ukraine on the battlefield, while Trump promises to end the war. 

While Trump and the Republicans firmly support Israel, Harris is walking a tightrope on the Gaza conflict. It has become the most divisive issue among Democrats since late 2023. The main disruption during Harris’s honeymoon tour came from pro-Palestinian protesters at a rally in Michigan, a crucial swing-state with a considerable Arab-American voting bloc. 

As part of her Gaza balancing act, Harris is fully aligned with Biden in supporting Israel and its needs, while pushing for a ceasefire.However, rhetorically Harris has been far more critical of Israel than Biden in order to placate her party’s progressive wing. Should a ceasefire be achieved and hold until election day, Harris will be temporarily relieved of critical pressure. Failure to secure a truce hangs like a dagger over party unity and critical votes in Michigan. 

Furthermore, Democrats are hoping to avoid scenes of chaos by anti-war groups descending upon Chicago for the National Democratic Convention, and future rallies before Election Day. Memories of violent clashes involving anti-Vietnam War protesters at the 1968 convention in Chicago, and beyond, loom large. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may yet spoil Harris’s plans. His main concern is political survival at home and restoring Israel’s deterrence abroad. A ceasefire risks the collapse of Netanyahu’s fragile government as his far-right coalition partners have threatened to pull out. Furthermore, Netanyahu prefers a divided Democratic Party and another Trump presidency providing him with near unconditional support. 

In addition to inflation and Gaza, immigration is another Achilles Heel for Harris. US Customs and Border Protection has reported about 10 million nationwide illegal entries since Biden and Harris assumed office in January 2021. The numbers are real and unprecedented and its impact has been staggering and overwhelming on all levels. To say that the border has spiraled out of control since 2021 is an understatement. 

Although Harris inherits Biden’s border legacy, she will try to downplay it by focusing on tougher restrictions Biden has pursued in recent months, blame Republicans for delaying efforts to address the issue, and emphasize the need to reform a broken immigration system. 

Overall, the 2024 US presidential contest is clearly the most consequential election so far this century that will inevitably shape the course of US politics and global affairs for the next quarter century, and potentially beyond. 

Marco Vicenzino is director of Global Strategy Project, a geopolitical risk and international business advisory firm.