The myth and limits of a successful lobby group

I once asked a prominent figure in the American pro-Israel lobbying community what the secret of its success was. He answered me bluntly and clearly: “Fear.” I admittedly did not understand what he meant at first, but then I realized that he was talking about how the myth of the pro-Israel lobby is based precisely on its ability to make its opponents afraid. Long before the war in Gaza, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and other powerful organizations were selecting candidates who were critical of Israel and destroying them politically, to set an example.

The war in Gaza has turned the United States upside down. A growing number of politicians, academics and others are increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel. The argument that anyone who shares such views is automatically “anti-Semitic” has been greatly weakened. A great taboo has been broken and has led, as always happens in these cases, to extreme behaviors and criticisms from the opposing side. But what matters is that the taboo is broken and Americans who shape the public discourse are voicing opinions that until a few years ago would have only expressed them off the record.

However, the pro-Israel lobby continues to fight its battles and try to contain the tsunami of criticism. It did it twice in recent months when it targeted two members of Congress, New York Congressman Jamaal Bowman and Missouri Representative Cori Bush. Bush was one of the first American politicians to publicly propose a ceasefire in Gaza. She lost the Democratic primary because the lobby decided to spend around 9 million dollars to finance a negative campaign against her. The St Louis primary was said to be one of the most expensive in American political history. Voters had no idea who was financing the campaign against her, nor, according to local media, what the distant war in Gaza might have to do with a constituency in Missouri. But Bush lost, as did Bowman, who cost the lobby a little more – about 15 million dollars.

With these victories, the pro-Israel lobby frightened its opponents, especially those who until now had hesitated to speak out. After all, this was the goal of the campaign. At the same time, major donors are working with the lobby to target universities, departments or professors who have taken hard-line positions against Israel recently. They do this methodically, cutting donations in a very visible way. Will the tried-and-tested method work this time? In the short term, yes. But not for the long term. The image of Netanyahu’s Israel has been badly damaged. What is happening in Gaza combined with the apparent inability to find a solution to the Palestinian issue has angered a significant portion of American public opinion, especially the youth – sometimes in an anachronistic and fanatical way.

However, the pro-Israel lobby will continue to do its job as it knows how and as much as it can. The way it operates certainly contrasts with the inability of the Greek-American lobby to follow, even by a mere 20%, the model of AIPAC and related organizations. 

All it can hope for is that the pro-Israeli lobby will reflexively turn against Turkey and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the American centers of power and Congress if and when new extreme Turkish behaviors emerge in the Aegean or Cyprus.