An existential problem for our national strategy
As America goes through a major crisis, and no one knows who will be in charge in January 2025 or under what conditions, it is worth reflecting on a few things. Greece’s relationship with Turkey has always been mediated through the United States. Whenever a crisis erupted in the Aegean or Cyprus, the sitting Greek prime minister would turn to Washington. At the same time, they would push for the US to guarantee stability in the region and maintain a relative balance of armaments. This was achieved in the direct aftermath of 1974. It was important that the US felt some guilt for supporting the military dictatorship in Greece and for the role of late secretary of state Henry Kissinger in the Turkish invasion of Cyprus. There was also significant internal pressure from Congress and the Greek-American lobby.
Where do we stand today? First, no one in Washington has any interest in the events of the 1967-1974 period. Members of Congress are surprised to hear criticism about this.
Under Joe Biden – as opposed to the Trump-Pompeo era – the American “deep state” has appeared anxious not to upset Ankara. Washington has certainly helped establish a period of calm in the Aegean as part of the grand bargain in the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. It is significant that there are currently no overflights in the Aegean. That said, Turkey’s revisionist policy has not changed. On the contrary, Turkish officials remind Greece of it at every opportunity.
Out of this bargaining, Greece got the so-called “Blinken package.” In terms of used armaments, Athens was to receive absolutely nothing of use. In terms of guarantees, the US secretary of state avoided any explicit commitments and somewhere in one room in Congress there is just a confidential memo that members can read (only there) with assurances that the US will halt the sale of F-16 warplanes if Turkish aggression resurfaces.
This document would not exist without the intervention of the senator who is now waiting to be taken to prison. But we are currently in the post-Menendez era with the Greek-American lobby bogged down in an incredible quagmire of personal strife and infighting without end.
In reality, if something goes wrong, only the personal ties and credibility of the Greek prime minister can make the difference in convincing the White House to intervene.
It is positive that he maintains such relations with the two frontrunners to succeed Biden as presidential candidates, Vice-President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom. But there is a more profound, existential problem for Greece’s national strategy. Given the current state of affairs in the US, the real danger is that at some point the Maximos Mansion might call the White House during a crisis only to get a response such as, “This isn’t our business” or “You’ve got the wrong number.” Such a response would spark an anti-Western wave in Greece similar to that of 1974. There is, therefore, an urgent need to rethink the methods and tools with which Athens has been dealing with Turkey for the last 65 years.
