Planning for a new Trump term in Brussels and Athens
With the chances of a Donald Trump victory in November increasing, Europe – but also Greece – need to get serious about planning for the “day after” both in terms of the issues that are critical to the European Union as well as in the broader geopolitical setting.
It will need to start relying less on a more unpredictable America that is less interested in Euro-Atlantic relationships – and, of particular concern to Greece, in Southeastern Europe – than the Biden administration.
The Euro-Atlantic structure, the key pillar of the West, has stood the test of time and “survived” numerous changes in governments on both sides of the Atlantic, including Trump’s first term in office.
However, Trump’s indicated intentions so far, as well as those of his vice-presidential running mate JD Vance, justify the concern that is being seen and should act as a catalyst for expediting the European integration.
They also make immediate tactical moves essential, along with the need to develop a partially autonomous long-term strategy for Europe.
An additional parameter of this development – and given Trump’s critical stance towards many European countries and NATO, too – is the further strengthening and development of European defense and security, an area where Greece has already taken the lead. Geography, after all, dictates a particularly active role for our country in the framework of such pan-European planning.
As we here in Greece consider the – still uncertain but likely – eventuality of Trump’s return to the White House, it would be good to bear in mind that designing policy often comes down to personalities, too.
Wes Mitchell is a case in point: the assistant secretary of state for Europe during Trump’s first term, a position that is crucial to Greek interests, pursued during his 18 months in office a different strategic approach to the Eastern Mediterranean, which ultimately demonstrated Greece’s value and enhanced role.
On the flipside of the personality coin, the stance and priorities of certain individuals may not necessarily coincide with what is in Greece’s interest. Such was the case with General Michael Flynn, who was appointed as national security advisor as soon as Trump was sworn in as president in January 2017 and stayed in the role for just 22 days before he was forced to resign amid numerous transgressions. Among other things, it was also revealed that he was on the payroll of the Turkish government.
Last not least, there is one other important thing to remember: as in the first Trump term, so too in the possible second, there will be Greek Americans with access to the White House, even if their influence is obviously not clear yet.
