Global uncertainty

It has been many, many years since we last lived through such a period of global uncertainty. Nothing is a given and certainly not predictable. What will happen in France if President Emmanuel Macron is crushed in the upcoming national elections, and what will far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s victory mean for Europe? What will a semi-bankruptcy of France – which is in a dire fiscal situation – mean? What will a possible victory of Donald Trump in the US elections in November mean? What will be the impact on NATO, Ukraine and the Middle East? How likely are US bond spreads to widen as the country’s debt soars and there is no sign of political consensus on how to deal with it? Will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continue to hold on to power despite the opposite mood of the Israeli deep state and the current US administration? And will he drag his country and the region into a perpetual war purely for his own political survival? Will a solution be found for the war in Ukraine or will the protracted stalemate and the informal – for now – hybrid war between Russia and the West continue?

Nothing can be considered a far-fetched scenario anymore, not even a French or US bankruptcy. We are experiencing a period of tectonic changes, one of those that the planet experiences every 50-60 years. No one has any answers. I think that even if those who made a career as political “sages” or “seers” were still alive, they would not be able to predict what will happen. That is because technology and artificial intelligence that will change our lives in a catalytic way have been added to the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Even the way you will be informed about what is happening around you and the work we do will change dramatically.

What is evident is the fact that the leaders representing the post-war order are politically (and not only) weak. They try, but some of them seem neurotically desperate while others appear wise but weak. On the opposite side, they have politically powerful leaders who challenge the status quo as strongly as possible. Domestically, they do it persuasively, by communicating with citizens directly. Abroad, people like Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin et al are doing it with aggressiveness, betting on the end of American hegemony and the emergence of a much more anarchic and multi-political world.

Anyone who tells you that they know what will happen obviously does not lack self-confidence. What is certain is that we are living in an exciting period in history.