The Israeli people hold the key
Why are hopes for peace in the Middle East lower than ever? The immediate, obvious answer is that Hamas’ terror attack on October 7 and Israel’s response show that, for both sides, this is a fight to the finish: Hamas wants to wipe the state of Israel off the map and is trying, through the catastrophic response that it provoked, to mobilize a broader front against Israel.
For Israel, military victory means survival. For both sides, any step back will be seen not as a gesture of goodwill but as surrender. This is what hardliners on both sides exploit to keep tensions high and to hold hostage the more logical people – those who understand that at some point both nations will have to coexist under conditions that are more just.
For any compromise between Israel and the Palestinians, though, it is not enough for their leaders to suddenly be inspired by wisdom and humanist values. There has to be a spirit of understanding and cooperation on the international scene as well, so that the conflict’s protagonists will understand that their allies demand a solution, and that they will back them in the negotiations and in policing any agreement that arises. With a new cold war shaping up, though, this is not feasible.
America’s difficulty in handling Israel, and the opportunities for greater alignment that this gives “anti-Western” forces, eliminates any mediatory role that could be played by big and regional powers, and by the UN. Enough countries have an interest in continuing the Palestinians’ suffering and in maintaining the Israelis’ existential fears, so that there is no end to the fighting.
For the protagonists to change policy, both nations need to find leaders who will be able to impose themselves on hardliners and reach a compromise with the other side. Conditions, though, favor those who see victory only through conflict. And they “blackmail” their allies with the possibility of their unleashing even greater violence against their enemies, or of their facing even greater dangers if they are weakened on the battlefield.
In the United States, the war in Gaza divides the Democrat and unites the Republicans, just a few months before the elections which may see Donald Trump return to power. Then, the Middle East will be at risk not only because of America’s unquestioning support for Benjamin Netanyahu but also through its likely withdrawal when Trump’s grandiose illusions run up against the Middle East’s reality.
In this international context, given that Israel is the only democracy in the region, the only reasonable hope is for the Israeli people to change course, to seek a solution that combines military power with bold diplomacy.
