What will be considered a ‘success’ for parties in the European elections?

A question that inevitably arises in the run-up to the European Parliament elections is what percentage will be considered a success for each Greek party, both in terms of substance and communication management. And the answer is not simple.

For ruling New Democracy, the picture is relatively clear. It will need to achieve the target publicly set by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself: winning 33% of the vote, like it did in the previous European elections.

The prime minister hastened to publicly “impose” this threshold to avoid the dangers inherent in excessive expectations. Besides, the comparison with the 41% secured by his party in the last national elections is, for many reasons, distorting.

At the same time, there are indications that the difference between the first and second party will again be so great that even if the percentage achieved is a little lower than that desired, there will be no friction within the conservatives. It is only in the rather unlikely scenario where both the first and second parties secure a double-digit percentage starting with 2 that one could assume there might be trouble.

In any case, maintaining power is a strong motive for unity, and at this stage it is not at stake or threatened.

For SYRIZA, the leftist main opposition, the target seems to be the percentage achieved in the last parliamentary elections. If the party reaches or exceeds 18%, it will make even more difficult the already difficult effort of some in the party to get rid of their new leader, Stefanos Kasselakis.

One should also take into account the fact that in these elections SYRIZA’s percentage will not include the votes of the splinter group New Left, which were part of last June’s 18%.

On the other hand, if the comparison for New Democracy is with the previous European elections, one could argue that the same should apply in the case of the main opposition; then the benchmark would jump to 24%.

Socialist PASOK is faced with the paradox of having set as its goal securing second place, a logical move following the positive developments for the party in the last parliamentary elections. But this means that if PASOK receives 12% in June, it could end up appearing as the big loser, although this would represent an increase of more than 50% compared to the previous European elections.

For its part, nationalist Greek Solution will be a clear winner, whichever way one looks at it. By all indications, it will more than double its 4% share of the vote it got in both the 2019 European elections and the last national election. This development is naturally a source of concern for the government, but also for some European observers monitoring developments in Greece.

Finally, it will be interesting to see how some smaller parties perform and how they will shape politics in the medium term. The focus will be on the looming stabilization of religious Niki, and the percentage the ultraconservative of Foni Logikis (Voice of Reason) will get, while the centrist Democrats of Andreas Loverdos are seen with special interest as their impact may be decisive in future political processes.