The new cold war
The warm climate that Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin made a point of cultivating during the Russian president’s official visit to China confirms that we are at the beginning of a new cold war. “Together we are defending the principles of justice and a democratic world order reflecting multipolar realities and based on international law,” Putin told Xi. This, coming from the leader of a nuclear power which invaded a neighbor, causing the death of untold thousands of Ukrainians and Russians, plunging the world into the uncertainty of a war with no end in sight, shows that as in the 1947-1991 Cold War, the opposing sides can both claim that they are defending peace and democracy against their rivals’ aggression. The others’ actions always “justify” our suspicions and validate our own choices. Russia and China can therefore present themselves as defenders of international law even as the West defends that law in practice by supporting Ukraine.
As in the Cold War, the question is what smaller countries will do. Xi’s trip to Europe last week was aimed at showing that China can support its friends and can cause turbulence in the EU. Our country has had good relations with China for many years and will most likely seek to stay out of a direct, bilateral confrontation, keeping within the framework of NATO and European Union collective policies. Turkey’s situation is more complicated. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has succeeded in playing both sides in the Ukraine war so far – helping Putin survive Western sanctions while also assisting Ukraine. As closer ties with China strengthen Putin, he depends less on Erdogan. He might begin to press for payment for the assistance he offered for the Turkish president’s re-election last year. The time is coming where Erdogan may have to choose whether his country will remain in NATO, as it did through the Cold War.
Perhaps the fact that Ankara is heating up its rhetoric on “patriotic” fronts – Palestine, the Kurdish issue etc – suggests that Turkey will fall in line with the Western Alliance soon.
