The fallout from Ankara’s adventurism
The reasons why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s planned visit to Washington was called off lie in the distant, but also the recent past. The decision also appears to be casting a pall (for now?) over the positive climate of the past few months, which emerged after some diplomatic maneuvering by Erdogan, who made simultaneous openings to Greece, Israel and later Egypt, toned down the rhetoric against the United States and adapted to certain of its demands with regard to the sanctions on Russia and support for Ukraine. His stance was rewarded by Washington with the F-16 jet deal.
All of this started unraveling, however, with the war in Gaza. Turkey’s initial shock very soon gave way to an escalating aggressive rhetoric against Israel, which culminated a few days ago in a partial trade embargo, to the satisfaction, mainly, of fanatical Islamists.
While talks at the technical and diplomatic level between the Americans and the Turks intensified and the US showed a certain amount of tolerance for Ankara’s statements and actions – which not only diverged from the American line but fed into the polarization in the Middle East – the climate at the highest level became if not tense, then certainly problematic.
Erdogan’s defeat in the recent local elections in Turkey and his need to rally the country’s conservative Islamic parties (like the Welfare Party of Fatih Erbakan, son of the late prime minister Necmettin Erbakan) compelled him to crank up the volume against Israel and the West, going so far as to justify Iran’s attack on Israel and its continued support of Hamas.
US President Joe Biden shot back with a reference to the Armenian genocide and had obviously come under pressure from the Israeli lobby not to receive Erdogan at the White House. Following these developments, the postponement of the Turkish president’s visit was just a matter of time – and was probably very convenient for both leaders.
It is too early at this point to assess the impact of the canceled visit on American-Turkish relations. Clearly it is negative, but despite the differences dividing the two sides, the cancellation of the meeting between the two leaders will not necessarily put relations on ice.
Erdogan has no reason to impede the positive momentum with Greece since he has not backed down an inch from his revisionist positions
This is especially so considering that both sides were eager to avoid such an eventuality at this point, even while showing their respective domestic audiences that they maintained a decisive attitude.
This recent development, however, is indicative of the Turkish president’s risky adventurism and his ability as a political chameleon to adapt with such ease. This in itself is another lesson for the West at large, showing it that if it does not set out a framework of specific rules and continues to make exceptions for Ankara, it will respond by straying further and further from the line, taking a lone course without commitments.
Is Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ planned visit to Ankara affected by this development? Probably not. The Turkish economy is struggling and there is no room for experiments.
A spike in tension with the US and the absence of efforts to make things right will send the wrong message to the markets and sink everything that has been accomplished on the front of bilateral relations at a time when they remain fragile. Erdogan has no reason to impede the positive momentum with Greece (with the easing of tensions and various agreements) since he has not backed down an inch from his revisionist positions. If he gets the opportunity to bring them up again he will, but now that the Americans are wary once more and in a state of constant vigilance because of Ukraine and Gaza, Turkey would be taking a great risk by opening up a front with Greece again.
Constantinos Filis is an associate professor at the American College of Greece and the director of its Institute of Global Affairs.
