How much polarization is right?
Recent opinion polls all point toward certain conclusions.
The ruling New Democracy party is undergoing a decline, albeit not a steep one. This decline is evident both in terms of voting intentions and other qualitative indicators. However, despite this erosion, the party still maintains a considerable lead. In fact, data from polls regarding voting intentions for legislative elections suggest that New Democracy’s percentage is relatively higher, indicating that any dissatisfaction has not taken on a permanent character. Rather, the findings suggest a partial distancing from the conservative party, rather than a definitive break.
Any loss of support for New Democracy is mostly toward the right, with parties like Greek Solution, Niki (Victory), and other smaller right-wing factions benefiting. Only a scant percentage of voters seem to have shifted toward PASOK, and zero movement toward SYRIZA. This loss to the right cannot be deemed irreversible. Meanwhile, as long as there is no direct voter migration between the leading and second-ranking parties, a change to the current balance of power is highly improbable.
Polls also indicate that center-left and left-wing parties are stagnating, with fluctuations in their support being minimal and primarily driven by internal shifts rather than any notable expansion of their political influence. Moreover, the trend observed in recent parliamentary elections, marked by a significant decline in left-wing parties and a concurrent rise in more right-wing ones, is likely to persist.
The slight resurgence of SYRIZA over the past two months does not seem to stem from any political momentum, but rather from a typical pre-election rallying of political forces combined with the popularity of Stefanos Kasselakis among certain less politically engaged demographics. However, this uptick appears to have a limited ceiling, as Kasselakis’ personal image – characterized by low popularity, high negative ratings, and limited public presence – falls short of that expected of a potential prime minister.
In such an environment, polarization – although largely expected as we are in the run-up to European elections – appears to be intentional. For opposition parties, it is seen as an instrument that will energize voters to send an anti-government message. Conversely, for New Democracy, polarization is seen as essential to galvanize its support.
However, managing the intensity of polarization requires deft political maneuvering. The opposition, by exaggerating the rhetoric and significance of the European elections, risks inadvertently assisting the government by motivating disenchanted voters to unite against perceived external threats. This risk is compounded by the challenges facing opposition parties, evident in public opinion surveys.
Conversely, if New Democracy exaggerates the importance of the European elections, it could create a self-fulfilling prophecy. The country would inevitably confront a challenge to its political stability, as the government itself would have brought attention to the issue, despite public disbelief in its existence and no indication of such a problem in the parliamentary balance of power.
If New Democracy exaggerates the importance of the European elections, it could create a self-fulfilling prophecy
The crucial factor lies in the practical capabilities of each party. Opposition parties, grappling with internal challenges and because of their own role, appear to be heavily reliant on fostering a growing anti-systemic sentiment. This sentiment is primarily sparked by public discontent over the government’s response to the Tempe railway disaster and is exacerbated by the soaring cost of living crisis. Additionally, contentious issues including marriage equality and deep-seated convictions, such as anti-Westernism and empathy for the orthodox “blond race,” continue to resonate, particularly in certain parts of Greek society.
However, the government appears to have a wider array of options at its disposal, despite its waning popularity.
It maintains an indisputable lead, while Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ advantage over his main competitors remains substantial. Numerous challenging bills have been passed in Parliament. The trajectory of the economy, albeit overshadowed by the significant issue of the cost of living, presents promising opportunities. A large segment of the public dispels the notion of a political crisis or tensions akin to those experienced in the past decade. The political landscape following the European elections appears clear, with three years until the next electoral cycle, affording the government ample space to enforce its policies unimpeded.
What ND primarily needs is a revitalization of its central narrative. The message that glues its policies together has become somewhat obscured, lacking clarity. It necessitates a pivotal argument capable of persuading potential voters to transcend any dissatisfaction and rally behind the party once more.
The promise of a “return to normalcy” proved effective in 2019; however, after five years under New Democracy’s governance, it has become antiquated. “Stability” as an objective yielded dividends in 2023, coupled with a perception that, despite occasional missteps, “some forward steps are being made.”
What is the central message today? It’s crucial for the government to refresh its positive messages, agenda, and central narrative outlining its vision for the country. By doing so, it can steer clear of polarization and leave that territory to the opposition, whose extremes may more readily galvanize conservative voters around ND.
Eftychis Vardoulakis is a strategy and communications consultant.
