The West and the extremists’ trap
The liberal democracies of the West find themselves in a trap so dangerous that it is hard to believe their enemies were capable of planning it.
On the one hand, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine may not have achieved its goal of immediately occupying the country, but the war is becoming a difficult test for the anti-Russian front. On the other, Israel’s demolition of Gaza following the Hamas terror attack is dividing societies in the West and strengthening a broad international front against the United States and the European Union. In addition to the cost in lives and infrastructure, in addition to the danger of Putin and Iran growing stronger, the two wars could get worse, prompting a new exodus of refugees to surrounding regions and, consequently, to the European Union.
As extreme rightwing political forces feed off the existence of immigrants in their countries, if Ukraine were to lose the war, if the bloodshed in the Middle East were to spread, this would shake EU member states and the cohesion of the Union itself. And yet, in both wars the EU is unable to affect developments.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s statements that Russia must be defeated, and his refusal to rule out the use of NATO forces in Ukraine, may have upset German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and provoked reaction in other countries, but they are part of a necessary debate for the Union to be able to avert Ukraine’s defeat. The European Council’s decision to use the profits from frozen Russian assets to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine is another important step.
This conversation may be “difficult,” but it is also inevitable: the future of Ukraine, and, subsequently, of Europe, cannot depend on the how the drama in US domestic politics plays out. For some time now, the speaker of the House of Representatives, a loyal Trump instrument, has been holding up the ratification of aid for Ukraine, even as Russia ramps up its attacks. Trump has declared that if he is elected, “Ukraine will not get a penny,” according to his ally and interlocutor Viktor Orban. “The Europeans are unable to finance this war on their own, and then the war will end,” added the Hungarian prime minister, who is also close to Putin.
With some 4.2 million Ukrainian refugees registered in the EU, and another 8 million displaced in their country, Ukraine’s defeat would raise the number of refugees in member-states such as Germany. There, the extreme rightwing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is already ahead in the polls in three states where elections will be held in September (Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia). In a number of EU member-states, extreme rightwing parties are expected to do well in European Parliament elections in June. The public debate in Germany is dominated by the issue of refugees and migrants, initiating efforts by parties closer to the center to find ways to handle it. The European Popular Party intends to adopt a proposal to “outsource” asylum seekers to “safe third countries,” as Britain has tried with Rwanda (with no success, so far). The EU-Egypt deal, like those with Tunisia and Mauritania, is another effort to confine the problem to a third country, in exchange for economic assistance.
Perhaps Putin himself will help awaken those who hesitate to reinforce the front against him. On Friday, his spokesman declared that Russia is at war (instead of in a “special military operation,” as Moscow insisted till now). It is time for all who are not in Putin’s camp to understand that we, too, are at war. And we need to fight back, at home and abroad.
