Istanbul sets the scene for Turkey’s politics

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is playing all his cards in his effort to retake Istanbul in the municipal elections of March 31. Last Friday, he made a dramatic attempt to pull on the heartstrings of supporters, and of those who have not been persuaded to vote for his party’s candidate, suggesting that these would be his “last elections.” “I am working nonstop,” he said. “For me, this is a finale. With the authority of the law, these elections will be my last.” This appeal to voters’ emotions would be stronger if there wasn’t always the possibility of Erdogan changing the law, as he has done in the past.

The man who has dominated Turkey for the past two decades is doing all that he can to take Istanbul from the opposition, understanding that the result of this election will determine whether he will continue to control the political scene or whether he will find himself against a powerful opponent. For incumbent Ekrem Imamoglu, re-election will open the way towards being a powerful contender for the presidency in 2028. Not only would he then be the only Turkish politician to have beaten Erdogan repeatedly (thrice, if we consider the double election he had to contest at Erdogan’s demand in 2019), but also because the Turkish president has not groomed an heir. The AKP’s candidate, former environment and urbanization minister Murat Kurum, is weighed down with responsibility for much destruction in last year’s earthquakes (having granted asylum to shady contractors earlier). He cannot be seen as a threat to Erdogan, who obviously sees the municipal elections as more important for himself than for his party (in which case he would have picked a better candidate).

Polls show the two candidates running neck-and-neck at around 40 percent each, with 15-20 percent of voters undecided, in a battle that is considered to be between Erdogan and Imamoglu rather than between the latter and Kurum. Both Erdogan and Imamoglu are more popular than their parties. There is no question that Erdogan is the boss of his AKP. Although strong in the CHP, Imamoglu chose to fight the mayoral election without the extra responsibilities of a party leader. If he is re-elected, he will easily take over the party, If he loses, this will be impossible. In which case, he may establish a new center-right party, as he has cultivated ties with powerful economic interests that could support such an initiative. Also, unlike his party’s stance as part of the coalition that tried to take the presidency from Erdogan, Imamoglu is openly courting Kurdish voters, saying that “nothing can come between” them and himself. The announcement by the DEM party (formerly the HDP) that it will field a candidate in Istanbul’s election will certainly cost votes for Imamoglu. But if he overcomes all the obstacles, then Turkey’s political map will change.