The trap of illusions
In diplomacy, illusions are both a curse and a trap. I was reading the headlines of newspapers and websites about the recent statements of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. “[Fidan] revives Turkish provocations” was a headline that came up a lot. But it is wrong. Turkey has never taken its claims off the table. Never. On the contrary, it maintains a very transparent attitude that does not allow for misunderstandings.
Does this mean the two countries should not be talking to each other? Of course not. Both Greece and Turkey need this period of calm we are experiencing, for different reasons. Turkey wants to close multiple fronts and secure the coveted green light from the Unites States for the acquisition of the F-16 fighter jets and ensure that it receives German submarines. Greece has finally decided to seriously deal with a fundamental restructuring of the Hellenic Armed Forces and its defense industry while at the same time it is expecting significant reinforcements of its weapons systems in the next 3-4 years.
Beyond all this, however, it is very positive that there are currently communication channels and a “safety net” in place that prevent us from getting close to war, as happened in August 2020 when a Turkish warship collided with a Greek frigate in the Aegean, or in February 2020 with the instrumentalization of migrants clustered at the Evros to attempt an invasion of Greece.
However, Turkey’s positions will not change. Even the most ardent supporters of the Greek-Turkish approach realize that Ankara’s positions have hardened in recent years. Ankara clearly showed this with the Turkey-Libya GNA maritime deal and the conduct of exploratory operations in disputed areas.
But Ankara did something more that completely changed the situation. With letters to the United Nations, formal and irreversible, it went a step further than any of its previous positions. It claimed that all the islands of the eastern Aegean, from Limnos to Kastellorizo, are illegally militarized and as a result Greek sovereignty over them is disputed. Due to the disputed sovereignty, Ankara continues, these islands cannot be taken into account for the delimitation of maritime zones.
Since we started by talking about illusions, it is good to understand that Turkey is not “reviving” any claim; it keeps them there – expanded – on the table. However, I believe that anyone who dreams that with these positions Greece and Turkey have a chance of signing an agreement to refer their disputes to The Hague is delusional.
