A US election cliff-hanger
Former president Donald Trump triumphed in the Iowa caucuses on Monday. However, this does not mean that he is in the clear, that he has definitively secured the endorsement of the Republican Party. He still has a way to go. The media will do everything they can to give a “horse race” element to this contest. They won’t do it just because they hate him and want him to lose; they will do it because they have always done it – for decades – to increase viewership or clicks on the internet. They are furiously looking for the upset, the underdog, the crucial mistake that the sure favorite will make in the pre-election marathon.
Next stop is New Hampshire. This is the state where Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has invested a lot of energy, money and time. Wall Street has bolstered her financially, and what’s left of the rational Republican establishment has rallied behind her. The experience with Trump has of course proven that no systemic medium or establishment can easily stop the course of a candidate who looks more like a “force of nature” than a classical politician.
On the other hand, it is true that Trump has tired moderate voters, women because of his views on abortions, citizens who can no longer stand his extreme style. Trump has chosen not to campaign door-to-door, although that is common, especially in small states like New Hampshire. He prefers to go to various courts for the numerous cases he is involved in and play the “victim of the system.” He believes that he earns much more support in this way than by visiting one more farm.
It is still too early to predict what will happen in the next US elections. Trump remains the undisputed favorite and seems to be holding his party completely hostage. Maybe his arrogance, his obsession with 2020 and how – allegedly – the elections were stolen from him will cost him at the ballot box. Right now, the most likely scenario is that he will win the GOP presidential nomination and we’ll end up in an absolute political thriller with US President Joe Biden in November.
But a Trump defeat in the primaries would change everything. There are many people close to Biden who believe that if Trump loses the nomination, the current president will declare that he will not run again. So the only question is whether we will experience an election cliff-hanger that will be momentary or long-lasting.
