Blinken should build back better when he meets Mitsotakis

As Antony Blinken visits Greece, it is fair to wonder whether this is his last trip as US Secretary of State. 2024 is, after all, an election year and we are headed for more election year drama. There is no certainty as to who the next US President will be, so Secretary Blinken is in the unenviable position of having to execute a foreign policy that simultaneously lays the foundation for a second Biden Administration or defines the legacy of a single term presidency.

As challenging a proposition as that may be, the US-Greece partnership gives Blinken a chance to kill both these proverbial birds with one stone. However, it will require that the Secretary take direct control of the US-Greece relationship (much the way Secretary Pompeo did in the last year of his tenure). Certain policies over the last three years have become obstacles to optimizing the opportunities in the US-Greece relationship and in the region not only over the next Administration but for decades to come.

Secretaries of State have the good fortune of not being labeled as politicians or bureaucrats but as statesmen. Blinken should ponder the opportunities for statesmanship before him as he basks in the sunlight of Crete during the Epiphany.

The Secretary must start by making it clear to Prime Minister Mitsotakis that he is thinking long term. One of the most on point criticisms of Henry Kissinger was by the American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Rubin, who labeled the late Secretary as the master of “short termism.” The dynamics of global politics often encourage such short-term thinking because much of foreign policy is concerned with crisis management. After all, during the 2020 Presidential campaign who predicted that the US would be dealing with two major conflicts? 

Still, Blinken’s State Department is guilty of a particularly damaging kind of “short-termism” – one that is so focused on solving a problem at hand that it is blind with regards to long term consequences.

Take the F35s to Greece/F16s to Turkey issue that is certainly part of the Secretary’s agenda with the Prime Minister. Despite official statements denying the linkage, State has clearly linked the two sales in an attempt to incentivize Congress to approve sales to Turkey. This policy illustrates the dangers of “short-termism.” Whoever conceived this linkage probably imagined it as an elegant solution to multiple challenges. When State leaked the “linkage” one year ago it must have assumed that this policy would simultaneously: (a) expedite Sweden’s entry to NATO; (b) satisfy Greece’s security interests; and (c) provide a basis for a reconceived relationship between Washington and Ankara.

One year later, the State Department’s approach on these jets has turned out to be anything but elegant. In fact, on all three of the above fronts one would have to argue that the US was in a better position one year ago. The certainty of Sweden’s accession to NATO is still more a matter of guessing than certainty. The US’s credibility in Athens has suffered a serious blow because of State Department’s constant shifting of expectations as to when the F35 sale will be finalized and the justified feeling that Greece is being unfairly punished for the disfunction in the US-Turkey relationship. And since the Middle East conflict has diverted much of Washington’s attention away from Ukraine, Turkey’s clear pro-Hamas orientation will hinder any real “reset” in relations between Washington and Ankara.

The beginning of 2024 is a good time for New Year’s resolutions, and Secretary Blinken should adopt a few with regards to the US-Greece relationship:

First, the F35 sale will be finalized as soon as Congress is back in session. Greece should not be a bargaining chip in whatever Congress vs. Turkey battles the Administration is trying to navigate. It is Turkey that needs to adjust its behavior.

Second, the mistake of linking US-Greece relations to US-Turkey relations will not be made again. The Biden Administration’s record on this front is largely positive – PM Mitsotakis has gotten a White House visit/address to Congress, Erdogan has not; the US/Greece Strategic Dialogue is substantial, the US-Turkey Strategic Mechanism is not; Greece is formally part of US backed regional initiatives (the “3+1”, IMEC, Three Seas, etc), Turkey is not. But the F35/F16 linkage risks upending all of this and depends on perpetual patience and political stability in Greece. It would be foolish to depend on this even in the short term.

Third, work with Greece on the future. There are earnest debates about the “day after” in both Ukraine and in the Middle East. Greece has much to contribute to these “days after” and could contribute much more if the institutionalization of certain partnerships (like the “3+1”) occur. The State Department’s “bottom up” approach to such efforts has resulted in little progress and Blinken risks missing the opportunity of a tremendous legacy by institutionalizing partnerships that will have both an immediate and long-term impact.

2024 requires statesmanship and strategy more than any year in recent memory. The Biden Administration certainly takes pride in keeping the Biden pledge of “We will be back.” But the people in this Administration remember quite well how their achievements (Paris Climate Accords, the Iran Deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership) were rolled back by the next Administration. As Secretary Blinken sits in Crete with an earnest partner whose country shares both interests and values with the United States, it is time to apply the Administration’s domestic mantra to the foreign policy: “Build back better.”

Endy Zemenides is the executive director of the Hellenic American Leadership Council (HALC).