2024 will show the way we’re headed
The past year showed that the future of humanity is in the hands of the voters of democratic countries. This year will show which way we are headed. We know how autocratic regimes behave and what their aims are. The great challenges of our time demand virtues that only the voters of free nations can appreciate and choose. In Israel, the United States of America, the European Union and wherever else there is freedom of expression and freedom to choose a government, citizens influence the way that their nations deal with the wars that are raging today and with the tensions between greater powers. Voters will also have a say in the evolution of the global system of governance and management of the climate crisis and mass migration. The situation is complicated, as domestic and foreign issues merge, seldom to the benefit of either. For regimes such as those of Iran and Russia, the choice is simple – repression of any dissenting voices at home and the pursuit of greater influence abroad, through direct intervention or by proxy.
As the world seems to be speeding towards ever greater tension and more conflict, the autocratic regimes see greater benefit in discord than in stability. In democracies, voters choose their governments and have a say in whether their country will pursue peace or conflict. When we look at the political scene in the United States, so bitterly divided between forces that cannot agree on crucial issues, we understand how fragile global stability is, seeing as this depends on America and its allies. However, part of the power of democracies is that their citizens can come to believe that it is in their interest to cooperate with other countries for the sake of stability and for dealing with major problems. And so, despite the timeless attraction of demagogues with easy promises of national superiority, the majority may reject the road to disaster. This may be a faint hope, but the choice is there.
The year 2023 was marked by the horrific terror attack by Hamas on October 7, followed by the murderous vengeance of Israel and the possibility of a wider conflagration if other forces intervene directly. The war in Ukraine ground on without an end in sight. In the Caucasus, Azerbaijan, aided by Turkey, took control of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing the exodus of the area’s Armenians. A wave of coups and conflict spread across Africa. The nations of the “Global South” began to enlarge the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and to strengthen their cooperation. Their aim is to counter the West and to “emancipate” themselves from the bonds of the post-war system of global governance established by the United States. This movement is of great use to Vladimir Putin, even though the UN Security Council, as it is now, benefits Russia. In addition, the winners of globalization – mainly China and India – may be sitting on the fence regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but they need the stability of the current system in order to develop.
Amidst so much uncertainty, the sure thing is that some countries and non-state entities have already chosen violence as a way of achieving their aims. It is up to the citizens of free nations to decide whether the world will be allowed to sink into conflict or whether it will choose the difficult road of cooperation in the effort to deal with our era’s mortal dangers.
