A year of crucial elections

The coming year is one of critically important elections. Those for the presidency of the United States, the Senate, the House of Representatives and state governorships (all on November 5) will determine the future of America and of the rest of the world. But we might see major developments much earlier, as in two weeks’ time (January 13), presidential and legislative elections will be held in Taiwan. The results of these will either worsen or improve the tense climate between Taipei and Beijing and, consequently, between Beijing and Washington. Presidential elections in Russia in March are less significant, as no one believes that Vladimir Putin will allow anyone to dethrone him. So, the war in Ukraine is set to continue into the foreseeable future. In Turkey, local elections would not normally draw much attention, but because Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants his party to regain the mayoralties of Istanbul and Ankara at all costs, the March polls will determine his behavior in domestic politics and in foreign policy – before and after the elections.

Greece will not be holding national or local elections, but the abovementioned contests will determine the international framework in which all countries will maneuver. No one today dares rule out the possibility of Trump returning to the White House (and with a Republican majority in Congress, too), with whatever this entails for the stability of the system of global governance. If Taiwan elects the candidate who considers the island de facto independent, China might increase the military pressure that it is exerting in the region, prompting greater intervention by the United States and trouble in the global economy. In Turkey, the consequences of the elections will depend on whether Erdogan seeks rapprochement with Kurdish voters, so that his candidates could have a chance of winning, or whether he will continue to depend on extreme-right parties.

In Greece, elections for the European Parliament in June will clarify how stable New Democracy’s hegemony is, the dynamics of other parties, the influence of the extreme right, the level of the diaspora’s participation, and the caliber of the candidates that we choose to represent us in Europe’s critical political arena.