Berlin’s strategic hand in Greek-Turkish relations
“We see this with a lot of positive excitement,” said Germany’s Ambassador in Athens Andreas Kindl when asked about his perspective on the Greek-Turkish summit at the recent Athens Security Forum. The German government has ample cause for satisfaction regarding recent developments in relations between Greece and Turkey. It may not be widely known, but Berlin has been instrumental in orchestrating the renewed dialogue between Athens and Ankara after a period of high tensions. There was a pivotal moment a year ago when senior diplomats from Greece and Turkey convened in Brussels at Germany’s behest, laying the groundwork for the resumption of the diplomatic process. When Turkey was struck by devastating earthquakes this February, the then foreign minister Nikos Dendias rushed to Anatolia, reinforcing and injecting considerable momentum into the process.
In recent years, Germany has sought to mediate between Greece and Turkey more than any other country. Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, these German efforts, which we have been told are coordinated with Washington, have been stepped up. “We feel obliged to ensure good relations between the parties involved in the Aegean and are always partners in this,” said Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz this summer, adding, “We will remain so.” Accordingly, it is no surprise that Greek-Turkish relations had a firm place on the agenda during the recent visits by both Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Berlin.
Concerning the future of Greek-Turkish relations, the assessment may be termed cautiously optimistic, an assessment reflected also in the German media. Berlin does not expect the Athens meeting to lead to quick results, with Ambassador Kindl referring to “a process that will not end on December 7.” And he added, “The major issues will not be touched but prepared behind the scenes for a later moment.”
The German diplomat’s assessment is in line with the widespread view that the two governments initially intend to focus on comparatively non-controversial topics to improve the bilateral climate and help build trust. “It is done in a very clever way, expectation management has been successful,” Kindl said, commending the Greek government’s communication strategy in the runup to the Turkish president’s visit.
In his wide-ranging interview in Kathimerini published the day before his arrival in Athens, Erdogan reiterated that Ankara does not want any interference from a “third party.” This call for “bilateralization” of Greek-Turkish relations has been a constant in Turkish strategy toward Greece for many years. This is another reason why Berlin’s diplomatic involvement has been discreet from the outset – and is by no means a topic the parties involved discuss in detail at press conferences.
Nevertheless, Erdogan is of course aware that the issues Athens and Ankara will be negotiating in the coming days, weeks and months have dimensions that go far beyond the bilateral framework. Few topics illustrate this better than the issue of migration, which will play a major role on Thursday.
During the recent visits by Erdogan and Mitsotakis to Berlin and their talks with Scholz, the question of how to reduce the flow of refugees to Europe was a major topic. All three leaders share an interest in renewing the 2016 refugee agreement between Turkey and the EU. When Erdogan speaks of “kazan kazan,” or a win-win situation, in Greek-Turkish relations, an agreement on the migration issue is a perfect starter. This is an area in which Greece and Turkey have vowed to work together closely. And Berlin will not stand by idly.
Dr Ronald Meinardus is a senior research fellow and the coordinator of research projects on Greek-German relations at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
