PASOK’s rise or SYRIZA’s fall?

SYRIZA’s decline in public opinion polls combined with PASOK’s marginal rise has fueled speculation that the country is going back to the bipolar political landscape, dominated by conservative New Democracy and center-left PASOK, that was so familiar before the economic crisis.

It is too soon to make such an assumption, however. It will take some time to see whether PASOK will reach out to certain former SYRIZA cadres and under what circumstances, and also to see how Parliament will be affected, whether a new parliamentary group will emerge and how it will influence developments.

What we are witnessing may turn out to be nothing more than a short-term phenomenon stemming from the crisis inside SYRIZA, without necessarily signaling the start of an upward swing for PASOK.

What is almost certain is that the center-left’s fragmentation will continue, with the newly autonomous presence of forces expressed by the camps of former ministers Alexis Charitsis and Effie Achtsioglou, as well as Euclid Tsakalotos. 

PASOK may work with or absorb some former SYRIZA members, but we are not seeing signs of a radical shift in the balance of power between the two parties. This is something that requires more than the collapse of one party having a negative effect on public opinion. It requires the other side also acquiring a very strong positive momentum, and such a development is not in evidence, at least for the time being.

Other factors are also at play, such as ex-PASOK cadre Andreas Loverdos, who recently announced that he is back on the political stage as a centrist, a development that will probably cost his former party support from center-right voters.

Another key parameter concerns leadership. It has been two years since Nikos Androulakis was elected head of PASOK. Expectations regarding his rule were very high and he has done quite well in that time, as evidenced by the party’s performance in the recent national and local elections. That said, he does not seem to possess the qualities that would help PASOK make the leap from its current position to the 30-35% contingent that would be required to put the party in such a situation that would bring the country back to the traditional New Democracy – PASOK relative equality.

Even sworn enemies of the late PASOK leader Andreas Papandreou acknowledged his abilities and charisma, the traits that allowed him to establish a new party and propel it, within seven years, to 48%.

SYRIZA’s Alexis Tsipras similarly managed to take a marginal party from 3% to 36% in just eight years. 

So the question is, does Androulakis have what it takes to get PASOK not just to a distant second place, but allow it to make a huge leap forward to seriously challenge New Democracy?