Turkey’s centenary
Until early 2023, it seemed that Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey was set to celebrate the 100 years since its founding on October 29 with an emphasis on how the founders “threw the Greeks into the sea.” The Turkish president’s oft-repeated threat, “We will come one night,” stressed this past and the later invasion of Cyprus. The warming of ties which is being attempted with Greece, after the catastrophic earthquakes in southeastern Turkey in February, changed the narrative (at least for now).
But Hamas’ terrorism and the war in Gaza are highlighting something far more important in Turkey society: A century after Mustafa Kemal’s establishment of the secular state, what is Turkey’s identity today? Can it be both with NATO and with Hamas? When will the time come for it to choose the direction of the “Turkish Century” which Erdogan envisions?
Over the years, the Turkish president has managed to yoke together Islamism and nationalism, strengthening his position while further dividing the nation. He “disarmed” the Kemalist officers by expropriating the Westernizing course that they supported (and by proscribing many following the failed coup in 2016) and then building on their nationalism so as to strengthen his position. At the same time, Erdogan’s dream to restore the glory and influence of the Ottoman Empire (and the power of its religion) undermine the treaties and agreements by which the founders of the Turkish republic sought to shape a secular, national, Western-looking state that would not be under constant threat from its neighbors.
Today, Erdogan’s effort to present himself as the guardian of all Muslims, the projection of force abroad and the occupation of land in foreign countries, the economic crisis and the undermining of human rights widen old divisions and cause new ones. Both within Turkey’s borders and beyond.
Till now, Turkey controlled its conflicting dynamics and successfully exploited others’ conflicts. The fire in Gaza will force it to take a clear stand with one side or the other. Then we shall see in which direction our neighbors are heading.
