Warnings from the second round

Local government elections in Greece have their own peculiarities and the trends they show are not perfectly aligned with those of the national polls. The low turnout in both the first and second rounds underlines the above, as it shows that the public did not consider that anything major was at stake.

However, the results of last Sunday’s runoff point to certain conclusions. If the first round confirmed the overall dominance of the ruling Conservatives, the second, with the defeat of government-backed candidates in a number of regions and the loss of the Municipality of Athens should set the alarm going, as a good number of voters sent a message of dissatisfaction.

Ιn these elections, and especially in the second round, New Democracy seemed to have set the bar too high. After all, in the national elections the party got 41%, not 51%.

Looking at the overall results, objections against the government are far from developing into a trend of disapproval. Hence, most of the losses were not expressed in favor of the opposition, but towards independent candidates of the center-right space. But it is clearly a message that needs to be evaluated.

Ιn these elections, and especially in the second round, New Democracy seemed to have set the bar too high. After all, at the national elections the party got 41%, not 51%. In an environment that has been somewhat strained since the summer, a local election in which the ruling party wanted more than 50% held inherent risks. Furthermore, the feeling the government pushed more than was necessary, certainly caused alliances to shift.

The contest also presented a warning sign for the main opposition, as its overall performance was poor. SYRIZA was weak at the level of local government anyway and it would be unfair to attribute responsibility for this to its new leader. But it should be pointed out that the party did significantly worse than in the local elections of 2019, while the election of a new leader did not seem to give it any fresh impetus.

The socialists, in contrast, have every reason to feel very much winners in this contest. PASOK did better than SYRIZA, it strengthened its presence in towns and cities, and won three important battles in Athens, Thessaloniki and the region of Thessaly with the candidates it backed.

Given that, at least until the European Parliament Elections in June 2024, competition will develop for who will have the upper hand in the opposition, PASOK can feel satisfied that it will be entering this race clearly strengthened. It remains to be seen if all of the above will end up being of an ephemeral or a strategic quality – the first seems more likely.

After the European Elections there will be three uninterrupted years for the government, until the general elections of 2027, which will be held in conditions and with stakes that will have nothing to do with what dominated in these elections. Everyone will have other matters to deal with.

Eftychis Vardoulakis is a political and communication consultant.