Two gamblers at the table
After Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement to export grain and fertilizers from Ukrainian and Russian ports on the Black Sea, prices have begun to rise again, Moscow has declared ships sailing to and from Ukraine are enemy vessels (they were already hard to insure), and the Security Council will meet on Friday to discuss the humanitarian fallout from the Russian decision.
Russia demands compliance with the conditions of the agreement which was signed with Ukraine, Turkey and the UN a year ago. It charges that international sanctions are obstructing its own exports and that it is mainly rich nations that are benefiting from the deal, not poorer ones. It demands the lifting of sanctions against a Russian bank for agricultural development and against the supply of farm equipment.
If the UN fails in its efforts to satisfy Moscow’s demands, the Russian president may discover the cynical flexibility of his close associate Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Threatening an international food crisis may make Russia look as if it is holding all the good cards, but this is high-risk brinkmanship.
If the UN fails in its efforts to satisfy Moscow’s demands, the Russian president may discover the cynical flexibility of his close associate Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With the recent rapprochement between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Israel and others, in his effort to attract investment and support, Erdogan has begun to loosen his country’s great dependence on Vladimir Putin for money and energy. If the suspension of the Black Sea initiative harms Turkey, then perhaps the United States and the EU might be able to persuade Erdogan to take a clearer stand against Putin. If he were to stop facilitating Russia’s sanctions busting, if Turkey were to impose sanctions, this would starve Putin of the oxygen that he has needed since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine. Turkey’s agreements with Arab countries, worth many billions of dollars, and the start of a closer relationship with the West, raise this possibility.
If things do go this way, Putin will have provided Erdogan with crucial support for the past few years while now providing him with the perfect opportunity to free himself of him. This may be conjecture, but things are moving swiftly.
