Election scene and majority calculations
The most likely outcome of Sunday’s election is a victory by New Democracy with a percentage that will allow it to form a government by itself.
A secondary, but – for a number of reasons – still important dimension, is how the two main opposition parties, SYRIZA and PASOK, will perform as the percentages they get will determine how they proceed from here on many levels, including the leadership and internal structures.
This is important for people who try to assess what the result of the upcoming elections will mean for the country, because given Greece’s political scene today, but also in the foreseeable future, governments – either single-party or coalition – will be formed by the three parties that have governed in the past, that is New Democracy, SYRIZA and PASOK.
A major determining factor of what happens is the percentage of the votes that will go to parties that will remain outside of Parliament
And despite their differences – in some cases very real, in others serving campaign purposes – all three have shown that when in power they are driven by pragmatism.
Hence, if the government is one of New Democracy by itself, as is the most likely scenario this time, or of a coalition of ND and PASOK, or the latter with SYRIZA, allies and foes in the geopolitical sphere, and investors in the economic scene, should know that there will be no major changes in Greece’s direction.
As for the calculation of votes and assignment of parliamentary seats, ND’s aim is to surpass the 39.8% it achieved in the 2019 election and even the 40.8% it got on May 21. By doing so it will end up with a comfortable majority in Greece’s 300-seat Parliament, similar to the 158 seats it achieved four years ago.
A major determining factor of what happens is the percentage of the votes that will go to parties that will remain outside of Parliament – the more the better for the winner.
That number will decrease substantially compared to May as this time around some smaller parties, from Sailing to Freedom (Plevsi Eleftherias) and, less likely, MeRA25 on the left, and Niki and Spartans on the right, might enter Parliament, theoretically making it more difficult for ND to attain an absolute majority. For every 1% decrease of the vote to parties outside the Parliament, ND would get a seat, and vice versa.
Still, even under the scenario of seven parties in Parliament, ND would most likely form a government if it gets a bit more than 39%. It is projected to get more than that.
In the unlikely case that ND fails to get an absolute majority, the most plausible alternative would have been a coalition with centrist PASOK. But as the latter insisted, at least during the campaign, that it will not cooperate with ND, a third election in August becomes a possibility, albeit a distant one.
As the long campaign, characterized by both civil debate and fierce attacks that are part of politics in Greece’s vibrant democracy, comes to an end, elections will continue to be at the forefront of political life in Greece. In October we have regional (for governors and mayors) elections, and seven months later, in May 2024, the ones for the European Parliament will follow.
