Solid majority; weak checks and balances

New Democracy will win the upcoming elections with a huge margin and Kyriakos Mitsotakis will be re-elected prime minister.

As of now, the most likely scenario is of seven parties entering Parliament, compared to the five that passed the 3% threshold in the May 21 election.

The latest polls show the conservatives further increasing their margin of victory, which means that ND will be able to form a single-party government.

In this setup the questions that arise are, in the case of New Democracy, how big their majority will be in the 300-member Parliament, and in the center-left opposition, which of its two components, SYRIZA and PASOK, will prove the most viable alternative to the conservatives.

If the polls are confirmed, ND could end up with over 160 MPs, a solid majority that will silence any internal objections and shield the PM from different kinds of animosities in the conservative camp.

On the other hand, a thin parliamentary majority of, say, only 151 to 153 MPs would inhibit Mitsotakis’ ability to pursue his priorities and governing would not prove a smooth ride. But, as noted above, this will most likely not be the case.

Last, but not least – if one cares for a well-functioning democratic system of checks and balances – is the ability of the opposition to hold the government accountable.

For the time being the two parties of the center-left, SYRIZA and PASOK, do not pose a real threat to the conservatives and will not do so in the near future.

But as they fight each other in an effort to appeal to their common base, their ability to offer themselves as an alternative to New Democracy will be further weakened.

And then another question – which has nothing to do with ideology – arises: If neither a divided opposition nor a problematic justice system can offer the necessary institutional checks and balances, who will?