Time of opportunity and danger

Everyone has a reason to watch Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s next moves with great attention and suspicion, as his unquestioned dominance over the political scene allows him to act without a domestic rival.

If there is any room for hope, it lies in the fact that only Erdogan is in a position to reverse course and deal with the accumulated problems of his country’s economy and foreign policy. He has the political capital to do so and he is, after all, the one who imposed the reckless economic policy and “precious loneliness” that he must now reverse.

The question faced by all countries that have a direct relationship with Turkey is how they should respond to any positive move by Erdogan without their simply strengthening him, granting him time and opportunity to expand his authoritarianism at home and to increase belligerence abroad. However, he may have no option but to follow a more conciliatory path. On the one hand, the economic crisis strengthens the hand of those who will be called on to support the Turkish economy, allowing them to place conditions on Erdogan. On the other, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused so many problems across the world that we are forced to see the problems of our region in a new light.

It is becoming clear that the opportunities which would arise from cooperation between today’s rivals are far greater than the obstacles which have determined their policies for many decades.

Turkey needs to think of where it would have been today if it had tied its economic development to policies of conciliation and cooperation rather than to endless adventurism.

Erdogan may not have gained the power that aggression and divisive politics achieved for him, but Turkey’s economy and society would have been on a much smoother path.

Now that Turkey is obliged to return to some semblance of normality, the next Greek government may find itself with the opportunity to negotiate from a stronger position than before, so that together the two countries can contribute to the region’s positive development.

For this, we need to know what we want, what is in our best interest (both in the short and long term), and to be aware of the time’s opportunities and dangers.