Aims and expectations
Despite the post-election arrogance displayed by some cadres – which could cost New Democracy the absolute majority it is aiming for and was quickly nipped in the bud by its leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis – the conservatives will win the June 25 election too, and again with a lead so significant over the second party that no one could have imagined or predicted it a few weeks ago.
Whether its percentage goes up even more than on May 21 or drops because some voters become complacent or a few centrists return to PASOK, the most likely scenario is that the country will have a single-party government by the end of the month. With seven parties looking likely to enter Parliament, the needed 40% is within reach.
It is up to Mitsotakis to reconfirm that the landslide win of May 21 was not the result of fear of a SYRIZA return, but a vote of confidence in him and his government.
For its part, SYRIZA is trying to regroup after a crippling defeat. Alexis Tsipras is charismatic and remains the party’s strongest card, but he is now being judged on the decisions and choices he made – or didn’t make – over the past few years.
The numbers will be telling. If the leftists slide even further, changes will have to take place. From hoping for a win or a decent lead on May 21, SYRIZA now finds itself in an existential crisis, questioning whether it will even remain the main opposition party.
But is getting around 20% of the vote enough for a party that was in government just four years ago? The least it should be aiming for is clinching the 23.7% it got in the European elections in 2019.
The reborn PASOK, which is looking forward to its return to a leading role in the political scene, is called upon to succeed in the new environment and respond to the expectations it has created.
A hostage to its success, with a jump from 8% of the vote in the 2019 elections to 11.5% in May, which is the largest increase in the number of votes of any other party compared to 2019 (as its leader Nikos Androulakis constantly points out), PASOK can no longer be satisfied with a “strong double-digit” percentage. Its strategic goal has now become to restore its role as the main opposition.
The value of those goals does not end on June 25, when the second vote will be held, as, unlike the 2015 and 2019 parliamentary elections, we are not facing a “clear” four-year term for the government.
In a short period of time, there will be two more decisive battles to fight – the municipal elections in October this year, and the European Parliament elections in May 2024 – both of particular importance for everyone, but primarily for SYRIZA and PASOK, as these new challenges will create a clearer picture about the trends in the politics of the center-left.
