As Balkan tensions spike, Chinese dragon raises its head
The recent spike in tensions in northern Kosovo, where dozens of NATO peacekeepers were injured in attacks by ethnic Serbs during protests against the appointment of ethnic Albanian mayors, serves as a painful reminder that the deep-rooted conflict in the heart of the Balkans cannot be easily resolved. Despite the efforts and strong pressure from Western powers, including the EU and the US, the path to normalizing relations between Serbs and Albanians will be long and marked by periodic nationalist outbursts. The divide between the two sides runs deep, fueled by a history of bloodshed and entrenched animosity, perpetuated by ongoing conflicts in the region.
The ongoing conflicts in the Serb-dominated northern part of Kosovo have raised concerns among major geopolitical players in the region, such as the USA, Germany, France, Italy and Russia, all of whom have significant interests in Southeast Europe. They have acted swiftly to avert worst-case scenarios, each driven by their own motivations.
Given the geopolitically volatile environment resulting from the Ukrainian crisis, it is imperative to prevent any ignition of the tinderbox that is the Kosovo-Serbia-Bosnia triangle, as everyone fears it could trigger a wider conflict.
Interestingly, this time the violence in Kosovo has caught China’s attention. While Beijing had previously maintained a relatively low profile regarding Kosovo, positioning itself in support of Serbia’s territorial integrity “on principle” and abstaining from crucial votes in the United Nations and other international forums, their recent involvement is not surprising to those closely following developments. The region holds great significance as a transit route for Chinese cargo transportation from the Greek port of Piraeus to the markets of Central and Northern Europe. In addition to using it for transit purposes, China has made strategic infrastructure investments in Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Albania, albeit under exploitative terms. Furthermore, China sells weapons to Belgrade.
Hence, any disturbance, particularly if it escalates into a military conflict, would have a significant impact on Chinese interests. Consequently, they are eager to protect their investments and strategic initiatives in the Western Balkans, often referred to as the “dragon’s head” of the Belt and Road Initiative. Additionally, there are geopolitical factors at play, specifically relating to Taiwan. China views Taiwan as its own territory, just as Belgrade views Kosovo. If the international community were to accept and formally recognize Kosovo’s complete secession, it would raise questions as to why the same principle should not apply to Taiwan. This serves as an additional reason for China’s increased interest and support for the Serbs in Kosovo.
