Aims and expectations in Sunday’s election

As election day has finally arrived after a very long campaign period, it is worth taking an objective look at the facts, as well as the aims and expectations of the three main protagonists, while getting a glimpse on what is happening with respect to the smaller parties in the ideological spectrum.

Incumbent New Democracy is eyeing a comfortable win that will allow it to reach its goal of forming a single-party government in the second election expected to take place on June 25 or July 2.

In this context, its leader and Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has rejected the possibility of a partnership with PASOK, even if it could make up the numbers for a coalition. And why should he not, when socialist leader Nikos Androulakis has made the estrangement easy by saying that he will not accept the head of the first party as prime minister?

The bar is being set at around 36%, which, in combination with the effective ouster of several far-right formations and steps to prevent a seventh party from entering Parliament, could allow a single-party government to be formed in the new elections.

Alexis Tsipras insists on defying public opinion polls, at least publicly, hoping that his SYRIZA party could come first. This is an extremely unlikely scenario as is the aim of forming a coalition with PASOK.

A more realistic goal would be a manageable defeat – by as little as 3%, instead of the 6% projected by the polls – which, along with getting in the second elections over the 31.5% achieved in July 2019, would firmly establish SYRIZA as the main political force in the broader center-left.

PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis, meanwhile, has painted himself into a corner. He is leading a party rife with conflicting trends and faces an uphill battle, particularly under the circumstances.

Things are much different today than they were in 2015, when the centrist area was basically unrepresented, with a very conservative New Democracy under Antonis Samaras on the right and a radical SYRIZA preaching defiance against the memorandums and abolition of property taxes on the left.

Both Mitsotakis and Tsipras have edged their parties closer to the center, limiting PASOK’s room for fresh growth. And there is nothing to suggest that the two main parties will not continue limiting that space even further.

The other parties, trying to keep their place in Parliament, are appealing on disgruntled voters.

Apart from the Greek Communist Party (KKE), which is expected to have a small boost in popularity, MeRA25 and Greek Solution are just above the 3% threshold needed to enter Parliament.

In the meantime, Zoe Konstantopoulou’s Freedom Sailing party has been increasing its share in the past few weeks, edging past 2%. The former parliament speaker is not limited to the left-wing vote, either, as her anti-systemic rhetoric, her staunch demand for WWII reparations from Germany, her opposition to the Prespes name deal and her overall patriotic rhetoric may also appeal to the far right.

Finally, another formation on the nationalist far right, the Victory party, is also appearing in the latest polls at above 2% and could prove a factor, if not in today’s election, maybe in the second one.