Coalition would be best outcome for Greece

Kyriakos Mitsotakis deserves a second term in office, with one big qualification. It would be best for Greece if he has to rely on a coalition with PASOK. This is the only realistic hope of getting to the bottom of the Predator spyware affair, which has tarnished the country’s democracy.

The New Democracy leader has rightly won plaudits for his management of the economy, in particular for attracting investors and digitizing the government.

Although output plunged during the Covid 19 pandemic, it has since rebounded strongly. As a result, Greece has outperformed the European Union average since Mitsotakis became prime minister.

He also managed the pandemic well. Though the government ran up large deficits to cushion the population from the pandemic, inflation has cut the debt ratio – and Greece is now on the point of regaining its investment grade credit rating.

The country is still poorer than it was before the crisis. But it is hard to see any other prime minister who could do a better job of repairing the damage of previous years.

Mitsotakis certainly has more credibility than Alexis Tsipras. Even though the SYRIZA leader is more sober than when he nearly took Greece over the cliff in 2015, investors would not be enthusiastic about his return – especially if he had to rely on support from Yanis Varoufakis, who bears huge responsibility for that near-death experience.

The New Democracy leader also deserves credit for his foreign policy. He has taken a firm line against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is rightly wary of China.

But Mitsotakis hasn’t shown much interest in cleaning up corruption. For example, he gave what amounted to an amnesty to large tax evaders and wiped the slate clean for many financiers accused of criminal breach of trust.

And then there’s Predator. The prime minister was slow to act when the first stories emerged about how the spyware was being used in Greece.

The prime minister was slow to act when the first stories emerged about how the spyware was being used in Greece

He has also shown little enthusiasm to investigate the affair even after evidence emerged that politicians, journalists and other prominent figures had been bugged.

Mitsotakis says the government itself is not involved. But circumstantial evidence has raised suspicions of links between government figures and Predator. How can the prime minister be sure unless there is a thorough independent investigation?

It may seem that a coalition between New Democracy and PASOK is impossible. After all, Nikos Androulakis says he will not do a deal with Mitsotakis – and the prime minister is saying the PASOK leader would be an unsuitable coalition partner.

But Androulakis would be wise to change his tune after next Sunday’s elections, which will give no party a majority. Instead of insisting on ousting Mitsotakis as his price for agreeing a coalition, he should demand a thorough independent investigation of the Predator affair. One option would be for a parliamentary commission with no limits on whom it could call to give evidence.

If Androulakis keeps on refusing to deal with Mitsotakis, PASOK risks being squeezed in the second election. Assuming New Democracy comes first, the prime minister will argue that he has legitimacy to continue in post and that the PASOK leader is being unreasonable.

On the other hand, if Androulakis says he’s willing to deal with Mitsotakis so long as there is an independent investigation of Predator, the prime minister will be on the back foot. If he didn’t agree, PASOK’s narrative going into a second and potentially third election would be that Mitsotakis had something to hide. Androulakis would then be better able to stop his voters switching sides.

Mitsotakis would presumably say that a coalition with Androulakis would be unable to agree on other vital policies. But their two parties aren’t that far apart on economics.

There is bad blood between the two men. But both should think about what is best for the nation. Doesn’t Greece deserve both a thriving economy and a well-functioning democracy?

Hugo Dixon is commentator-at-large for Reuters and an avid philosopher.