The cost of promises

The good news is that a public discussion has started on how much the measures and benefits being announced by the political parties if they win the elections are going to cost. That said, the discussion tends to be limited to the old question: Where will the money come from? The prime minister asked as much of the main opposition party, followed closely by the alternate finance minister, Theodoros Skylakakis, saying that a report quantifying the programs announced by incumbent New Democracy and opposition SYRIZA and PASOK “would be a sign of great progress.” He even said that such a report should be easy to produce, as it would be based on the 2023 budget tables.

The state is full of strange cogs and wheels. A raise of 10% in public sector salaries does not necessarily mean an increase of 10% in payroll costs

We don’t know how easy it is to put an exact figure on public expenditures. What we do know is that Skylakakis, who is the person responsible and, as a liberal, is probably skeptical by nature, knows that the state is full of strange cogs and wheels. A raise of 10% in public sector salaries does not necessarily mean an increase of 10% in payroll costs. There are categories like overtime and special benefits that can assume the burden of the raise; there’s legal amendments passed under the radar and measures that only unionists and experts know about or can understand. And if what Skylakakis said is true, if it’s easy to put a cost on measures, then why hasn’t the General Accounting Office done so all these years? And we don’t mean with regard to the pre-election programs, which are, by their very nature, vague to some degree. “It costs them nothing to promise everything,” the prime minister himself said the other day. “They know that there’s no way they’re going to win the election, so what does it matter if they promise 10 or 20 or 30 billion [euros] more?”

What we want to know the cost of is the laws ratified by Parliament that have a direct impact on the budget. Why? Because we know that almost every bill presented to Parliament comes with a vague note from the General Accounting Office that almost always contains the same vague assurance that the money for whichever measure is under discussion will come “from the budget.” There are no numbers, not even estimates. Therefore – and since it appears from all the public opinion polls that Kyriakos Mitsotakis will be elected prime minister again – it would be good if he started presenting the cost of the measures passed by his government first so that his demand of a breakdown from his opponents is more credible.