The algorithm of the ballot
This analysis will not begin with the famous quote from strategist James Carville in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H.W. Bush. Whoever can identify the criterion by which the critical mass of the Greek electorate will vote on May 21 will have solved the equation of the ballot, as they will have read the intentions of the pool of undecided voters.
The wiretapping scandal periodically affected public opinion, as indicated by opinion polls and the prevailing atmosphere that was carefully fueled by the political opponents of the government. However, the scandal never seemed to have had a major impact on developments. Perhaps it was not deemed as important as more tangible and palpable issues, equally problematic for the governing party, such as the skyrocketing cost of housing, which has economic and social implications that may have gone under the radar of party staff in terms of their importance. Cases that undermine the concept of so-called moral advantage, such as the scandals involving New Democracy MP Andreas Patsis or his SYRIZA peer Giannis Ragousis, have caused a stir and attracted public attention. However, they are not able to outweigh concerns about the state of public hospitals or universities.
The Tempe railway disaster unleashed a wave of anger, which was to be expected. Politically, it raised questions about the ability of this government to manage the beast called the Greek state. Comparisons between the conservative administration and the political alternatives in terms of managerial competence are inevitable, and everyone will draw their own conclusions.
National issues were a high priority until recently, especially after Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan intensified his aggressive rhetoric, which occupied public opinion, even those who had underestimated Turkey’s threat. The improvement in the climate after the devastating earthquakes that struck Turkey reduced the level of alarm and stress of public opinion ahead of the ballot. However, deep down, everyone realizes that Greek-Turkish disputes will resurface after the elections in Greece and Turkey.
From time to time, significant events occupy public life, and they are important. However, regardless of the circumstances, there are certain constants in the algorithm that produce a government: economy, health and education, defense, and security. The pivotal question is who can govern most effectively. Only the ballot box determines which option is always the best choice among the various options.
