The Black Sea and fears of a domino effect

The prospect of rising tensions in the Black Sea after Washington’s claim that a Russian fighter jet downed a US surveillance drone near Crimea is naturally a cause of major concern. Most observers have so far focused on eastern Ukraine. However, not far from there, dark clouds are gathering from the Carpathians to the Caucasus and from the Sea of Azov to the Bosporus Strait.

The geopolitical stakes are high in the Black Sea also. The future will largely depend on the fate of Ukraine, as well as the aspirations of Russia and Turkey. Hence the undeclared war in and above the Black Sea. The drone incident was just one episode in this conflict.

In Moldova, prolonged political volatility, which the pro-Western government says is instigated by Russia, could lead to dangerous instability.

Meanwhile, thousands of people took to the streets of Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi, to protest against a Putin-inspired “foreign agents” law which was criticized as signaling an authoritarian shift (under the law, media outlets, nongovernmental organizations and even individuals would have to register with the state as foreign agents if they receive more than 20 percent of their annual income from foreign entities).

The Europeans and the Americans see a risk of the Western presence being pushed out of the Black Sea as this will be gradually transformed into an enclosed lake controlled by Russia and Turkey

Although the government, which has clear pro-Russian leanings, backed down on the bill, the Georgian population’s anti-Russian sentiment, which is rooted in post-Soviet military conflicts and territorial losses, still remains strong.

Bulgaria has also been in a constant state of political crisis since 2020. The Balkan country, which will in a few days hold its sixth parliamentary election in two years, appears deeply divided between pro-Russian and pro-Western camp.

Over the Black Sea, NATO and Russian aircraft engage in dangerous dogfights that risk escalating into more serious conflict. And in the Bosporus Strait, Turkey has increasingly been hampering access for Western ships for the sake of its ally Putin and its own interests. The Europeans and the Americans see a risk of the Western presence being pushed out of the Black Sea as this will be gradually transformed into an enclosed lake controlled by Russia and Turkey. That would mean that all other coastal states (Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine) would be held ransom to the ambitions of Moscow and Ankara. For the two would be able to control the commercial and energy corridors (pipelines, the Danube River and so on), sea trade and of course the natural deposits under the seafloor. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already announced a large natural gas find in the area.

In a sign of Western concerns, the US Committee on Foreign Affairs in December approved the Black Sea Security Act, which recognizes the region as an “arena of Russian aggression.”